Oil prices slide in biggest drop since July on hope for more Iran talks

Oil prices posted their sharpest drop in three months Monday, after a series of headlines on Iran gave investors hope that the Trump administration would find a way to end the conflict without further escalation.

International Brent crude oil fell 7.6% to close the day at $104.77 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil dropped 7.3% to $96.46 per barrel.

The plunges were the largest one-day drops by percentages since July 27. For both key oil benchmarks, it was largest single-day drop in dollar terms since April 17.

Earlier on Monday, Iran’s IRNA news agency cited comments from the country’s president in which he said the Supreme Leader had “granted the government certain authorities” in relation to “seeking to resolve problems through dialogue” with its “enemies.”

Traders read that as Iran choosing to continue diplomatic talks with the U.S. through mediators, rather than escalating the war through further strikes on American allies in the region.

That report followed news Sunday that, “Trump, for now, wants to let negotiations play out” with Iran, according to Axios.

After oil prices closed for the day, NBC News asked President Donald Trump if he was considering striking Iran after the midterms and he replied “No,” twice.

As Trump’s response circulated online, prices continued their descent.

NBC News has previously reported that Trump was presented with options for resuming major combat operations against Iran, however officials cautioned at the time that no final decisions about the war had been made.

Energy markets are on edge after multiple reports in the past week suggested that Trump could resume striking Iran after Tuesday’s midterm elections, which could in turn lead Iran to again attack energy assets scattered throughout the Middle East.

Trump took notice of Monday’s drop.

“Oil today is down $10,” Trump told reporters in Washington. “And it’s going to go down a lot further because we’re winning with Iran, easily winning.”

Trump later posted about it on social media, writing: “Iran wants a settlement, as soon as possible. It could happen!”

Still, experts say global energy markets remain exposed to multiple risks.

“A broader conflict resulting in major energy infrastructure damage may spike prices as high as $150” per barrel, Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch wrote in September.

“If skirmishes curbing oil flows continue into year end, Brent could trade in a $95-120” per barrel range, he wrote.

That leaves open the possibility of more upside to oil prices that have surged all year, pressuring consumers around the world.

Since the start of the Iran war in late February, global oil prices have risen about 45%.

Another problem facing the U.S. economy is the high price of diesel fuel.

On Monday, diesel futures slid 5.4%, their biggest one-day drop since May 6. But, similarly to oil, that benchmark is up almost 110% since the start of the year.

Diesel has seen a far more dramatic price rise this year than unleaded gas, as both the Iran war and the Ukraine-Russia war have crimped supply.

Russia has historically been a major exporter of diesel to the world. But it has seen its refining capacity badly damaged by Ukrainian strikes.

After a brief halt, Ukraine has resumed attacking Russian diesel refineries in recent days.

Economists have been particularly concerned about the unprecedented rise in diesel prices because of the trickle-down effect that higher fuel prices for transporting consumer goods can quickly have on the economy.

As of Monday morning, the average U.S. nationwide diesel price was $6.29 per gallon, up 77% since the start of the year.