Houston Texans win total over 9.5 looks right despite tough schedule

Football is one of the more interesting sports to bet on for a variety of reasons. People tend to watch any game that is on, not just ones of their favorite team. It also seems like the most common sport for one team to turn around from season to season. Some teams with really good seasons the previous year can take a step back, and others take a step forward after a losing year. The Houston Texans had a good season last year, but will they keep it moving forward next year?

Last season

We probably should start with the positive for the Texans from last season. They ended the year with a 12-5 record and were able to get there even after dropping their first three games. They also were just 3-5 for the season in Week 9. Then the offense started to click and the defense maintained its excellence. They ran off nine straight wins to make it to the postseason. They even won a game, going on the road to beat the Steelers. CJ Stroud, their quarterback, was solid in that game. However, against the Patriots the next week, he was terrible. He threw four interceptions and completed less than half of his passes on his way to a 28-16 loss.

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CJ Stroud of the Houston Texans. (Houston Texans)

Offseason additions and subtractions

The team made a priority to extend Will Anderson, who had a really nice season. He is incredibly important to the team and will now be locked up for the foreseeable future. The problem has been their offensive line – so much of a problem that they have to be considered a top option for a Super Bowl if they cleaned it up. They really didn’t address it though. Instead, they added David Montgomery, who is a bit older for a running back, and was slightly falling out of the rotation in Detroit.

David Montgomery of the Detroit Lions runs the ball during the second half of a game against the Dallas Cowboys at Ford Field on Dec. 4, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. (Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)

Roster

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The team will still go as far as the defense can take it. The Texans have some very young and talented pieces. In the first half of the season it felt like they were one of the best in the league and I think it will remain that way this year. If the offensive line improves, magically, they will give Stroud plenty of time to throw the ball. However, I still am not expecting to see much out of the backfield. There are weapons on the team, but if you have no time to get them involved, it will be really tough to win games. I also am curious if the Texans believe in Stroud. They didn’t extend him, and Davis Mills won three games for them last year without that much of a drop in production.

Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans answers questions from reporters after an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

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The books have the Texans’ win total sitting at 9.5, and I think the over is the right call here. They do have a tough schedule. They open against Buffalo, then face Cincinnati, and could easily fall to 0-2 if they aren’t careful. I think by their bye week, they should have at least four wins, though. After that, you’re looking for six wins in the final 10 games. It might be tough, but I do like them to get double-digit wins with this defense.

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