Why you shouldn’t bank on Trump’s $5,000 dividends happening

Washington — President Trump pledged to give every American adult $5,000 if Republicans keep the House and Senate in November, framing it as a dividend made possible by the country’s “tremendous economic success.”

But the president’s pledge at the Republican National Committee’s midterm convention has political and logistical hurdles. And Mr. Trump has yet to follow through with other universal cash payments he’s promised to Americans thus far, with the Trump Accounts for babies born during his time in office being an exception. 

The Census Bureau says there are about 245 million U.S. citizens over 18, so if the Trump administration gave $5,000 to every adult U.S. citizen, it would cost over $1.2 trillion. CBS News has asked the White House for details on the president’s plan, including whether the money would come in the form of a check or some other way. 

Here are the reasons why Americans might not want to count on that $5,000. 

The payments would have to pass both chambers of Congress

The Constitution says Congress holds sole spending and appropriations powers. 

Giving $5,000 to each American adult would therefore require an act of Congress. Republicans already control both chambers, so if Mr. Trump wanted to prove he’s serious — and wanted to gain goodwill with voters — he could have already demanded that Congress take it up, or he could draft legislative language now. 

Mr. Trump told CBS Texas on Thursday he didn’t think the payments would require congressional approval, although he did not explain why.

“We think not,” he said when asked if Congress would need to approve the dividends. “I think they will do it if we needed it. But we think not.”

Asked by Fox News’ Laura Ingraham why not give Americans the money now, while the GOP has majorities in both chambers, Mr. Trump blamed Democrats.

“Because they can’t — I’ll tell you what — because the Democrats can’t do it,” he responded in a brief clip posted on social media. “Because with them it’s negative growth. With us, it’s so positive.”

So far, Republican leaders in Congress aren’t jumping on an idea that would add to the national debt, which last month surpassed $40 trillion. And House Speaker Mike Johnson has pledged spending cuts after the midterms should the GOP retain control. 

Polling isn’t favorable for Republicans to keep both chambers. Republicans face particularly strong headwinds in the House, where only a few district flips would lose them the chamber. Democrats are outperforming Republicans on the generic ballot. 

It’s unlikely a Democratic-controlled House or Senate would approve the $5,000 payments.

Americans never received DOGE dividends

The president expressed openness to some form of “DOGE dividends” to Americans at the beginning of his term, when billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk was overseeing the implementation of the administration’s government downsizing. 

“There’s even a — under consideration, a new concept where we give 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and 20% goes to paying down debt,” Mr. Trump said at the FII Priority Summit in Miami in February of last year.

DOGE savings came in well under projections, and the idea died out. 

Mr. Trump pledged tariff refunds that never arrived 

The president already vowed tariff dividends last year for Americans. He said a dividend of “at least $2,000” a person would arrive for everyone except for high-income Americans. 

The government has not, however, paid taxpayers directly. Companies are receiving tariff refunds after the Supreme Court ruled some of Mr. Trump’s tariffs were illegal. Some of those companies have vowed to share their financial relief with consumers, but they aren’t required to do so. 

The money generated from tariffs hasn’t come close to $5,000 per adult 

Vice President JD Vance told Fox News the money would come from tariff revenue. But the government isn’t generating enough tariff revenue for that to work. The money the U.S. has raked in through tariffs hasn’t come close to the more than $1.2 trillion that would be needed to pay each American adult $5,000. 

According to the Bipartisan Policy Center, the U.S. has brought in about $210 billion from gross tariff and other excise taxes in 2026. That only amounts to about $857 per eligible person, not to mention the U.S. government has already had to return much of its tariff revenue to companies. Over half of the revenues generated by tariffs in 2026 have been eaten up by refunds to companies, the Bipartisan Policy Center says. 

According to the Cato Institute, a $5,000 check for each American adult would be between 60% to 75% of the total revenue the Trump administration’s tariffs are projected to generate over 10 years.