Trump’s economy at 100 days: Unprecedented uncertainty reigns

Some uptick in economic activity could simply be the result of consumers’ and businesses’ trying to get ahead of tariffs by stocking up on goods for their households or inventory for their businesses as tariffs bear down, experts say.

“There’s a front-running effect,” said Bob Elliott, CEO of Unlimited Funds investment group. “You hear a lot of anecdotal stories related to that — like auto demand, there’s been a lot of pulled-forward auto demand,” he said, referring to consumers shopping for new vehicles currently on dealership lots that are not subject to Trump’s tariffs. “But even smaller-scale items, we’re seeing indications of pre-buying on worries that price rises are ahead.”

The latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey of economic conditions in the United States shows cracks starting to form, especially in sectors and regions that depend on foreign tourism, which has fallen off sharply as Trump has ramped up his immigration crackdowns at U.S. borders.

“Large attractions that normally draw international visitors saw a drop in travelers from abroad, particularly Canada, and airports and airlines reported a notable decline in foreign passengers to the U.S.,” the Atlanta Fed said.

In a statement, a White House spokesman noted there had actually been negative month-on-month inflation in March’s Consumer Price Index — meaning that on average, a typical price declined from February. The spokesman, Kush Desai, also pointed to investment commitments from firms like Apple, Nvidia and Hyundai designed to reshore manufacturing back to the United States.

“President Trump’s America First policies are delivering much-needed economic relief for everyday Americans while laying the groundwork for a long-term restoration of American Greatness,” Desai said.

And at a news conference marking Trump’s first 100 days, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt waved off any concerns about the economy.

“The actual data has been quite good,” Bessent said. “The job data is good, [and] Americans keep spending.”

“Trust in President Trump,” Leavitt said when a reporter asked how Americans should be thinking about this period of economic turmoil. “There is a reason he was re-elected to this office. It’s because of the historic success of his economic formula in the first term.”

It is not the tariffs themselves that have created the troublesome economic environment, said David Seif, chief economist at Nomura Holdings financial group. Rather, it is the uncertainty that has accompanied their imposition that is preventing businesses from spending and hiring and allowing the economy to settle back onto a more stable footing.

For any concerns Trump may have about how Americans view his performance on the economy, there are ways he can regain positive momentum, Seif said. If Trump manages to dial back his ambitions or finds a way to stand down from his more provocative stances, the memories of the initial months of his second term could fade fast.

“Uncertainty is the worst aspect of all of this,” Seif said. “If a plan were announced today, as long as it was seen as a totally definitive thing, that would allow companies to start investing again.”