Trump administration National Security Strategy claims Europe facing “civilizational erasure” within 20 years

The Trump administration claims in its new National Security Strategy, published early Friday morning, that some of America’s oldest allies in Europe face “the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure” due to immigration and the purported erosion of democratic principles.

Accusing the European Union and other unnamed transnational bodies of allowing unchecked immigration and curbing free speech, the document claims that, “should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less,” and that “it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies” to the United States.

The document claims Europe suffers from a “lack of self-confidence” that “is most evident in Europe’s relationship with Russia.” 

It says that European countries have a “significant hard power advantage” over Russia, but because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, they now “regard Russia as an existential threat.”

President Trump recently proposed a plan to end the brutal war sparked by Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which was drafted without Ukrainian or European involvement and largely reflected Russian demands. 

The plan drew a careful diplomatic response from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and from America’s NATO allies, which have been trying to show a united front and continue supporting Kyiv’s defensive efforts.

The National Security Strategy attacks the positions of some European governments on Ukraine, accusing unspecified officials of holding “unrealistic expectations for the war” as they lead “unstable minority governments” in their own countries.

The White House strategy makes the unsubstantiated claim that the populations of some European countries want an end to the war, but that their governments are subverting democratic processes and not delivering it.

The document says “it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European. As such, it is an open question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the United States, in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter.”

Some of the sentiments in the strategy document, particularly on the purported erosion of free speech rights in Europe, echo remarks delivered by Vice President JD Vance at a security conference in Germany early this year. He berated European leaders and accused some American allies of politically censoring right-wing ideas within their own nations.

The 33-page document breaks down American foreign policy for five broad regions: the Western Hemisphere, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. 

The strategy notes the reestablishment of strategic stability with Russia, enabling Europe to take primary responsibility for its own defense, and “ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance” among other U.S. priorities.

The document does say Europe remains “strategically and culturally vital to the United States,” and that America’s “goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory.”