Strait of Hormuz “back to the worst case scenario” amid escalating attacks, analyst says

Since the breakdown of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, ship crews around the Strait of Hormuz are unwilling to make the risky trip, Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of the Greek maritime risk management company Marisks, said Thursday.

“Vessels that were trapped inside the Persian Gulf for a very long time, belonging to owners that were extremely risk averse, managed to exit, and everybody was very joyful about that,” he said during a briefing for the Lloyd’s List intelligence group.

“With the recent events, everything has changed. We’ve gone back to the worst case scenario. Nobody is willing to move.”

He pointed to the collapse in transits through the strait itself, as well as more deadly attacks on commercial vessels since the ceasefire ended.

“All this resonates with crews, and right now they’re just not very happy to go through, no matter what is promised to them,” Maniatis said. “It’s not about money anymore, it’s not about any other higher calling, it’s purely about the fear that is governing the decision-making right now.” 

The concerns have pushed oil prices to their highest level in a month, with a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, up about 1% Thursday to trade around $85 a barrel. U.S. benchmark crude oil was up a similar amount, trading just under $80 per barrel.