Stocks, dollar up on hope of U.S.-China trade deal despite lack of details

SYDNEY, Australia — Wall Street stock futures climbed and the dollar firmed against safe haven peers on Monday as signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks raised hopes that a global recession might be avoided, though specifics were still sorely lacking.

Geopolitical tensions also looked to be easing as a fragile ceasefire held between India and Pakistan, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was ready to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday for talks.

Over in Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touted “substantial progress” in trade discussions, while Chinese officials said the two sides had reached “important consensus” and agreed to launch another new economic dialogue forum.

A joint statement is expected later on Monday, though it was notable that neither side mentioned tariff rates specifically.

“What we seem to have here, then, is a broad framework under which the two nations can conduct further talks, with the aim of reaching a broader trade agreement,” said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

“Not the worst-case outcome that was possible from this weekend’s talks, far from it, but not a concrete deal either,” he added. “Does this progress allow for any tariffs to be paused, reduced or rolled back, and if so for how long?”

Investors are hoping the White House will soon scale back the 145% tariff on Chinese goods, even if only back to the 60% first flagged by President Donald Trump.

Trump still seems wedded to keeping broad tariffs in place no matter what, which will drag on economic growth and push up prices, but any trade progress could help dodge a sharp downturn.

Markets reacted by pushing S&P 500 futures up 1.2%, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.4%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures firmed 0.9%, while FTSE futures added 0.4% and DAX futures 0.7%.

Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.3%, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.4%.

Chinese blue chips firmed 0.8%, though data over the weekend showed factory-gate prices posted the steepest drop in six months in April while consumer prices fell for a third month.

The dollar added 0.4% on the safe haven yen to reach 145.90, though it was off an early five-week peak of 146.31. The euro dipped 0.2% to $1.1224 and the dollar index edged up 0.2% to 100.60.

The dollar also dipped 0.2% on the offshore Chinese yuan to 7.2278, and back toward last week’s low of 7.1846.