Report Tracks Not Just Degrees—But Payoff

As debates over workforce needs and economic mobility heat up, the Lumina Foundation is tracking which Americans are earning credentials that actually pay off.

This week, the foundation, dedicated to increasing the share of U.S. adults with high-quality degrees, released its annual A Stronger Nation report, which uses its public data tool to measure the value of credentials. For 2024, the report shows that 43.6 percent of U.S. adults ages 25 to 64 in the labor force have a college degree or other credential—such as a certificate or industry-recognized certification—and are earning more than someone with only a high school diploma.

Courtney Brown, vice president of strategic impact and planning at the Lumina Foundation, said the conversation around higher education has shifted from access alone to economic value.

“People began asking not just if I can get a credential but is it actually going to lead to a better job with higher pay,” Brown said. “That shift is what really brings us to where we are today.”

When the public data tool was first released in 2009, only about 39 percent of U.S. adults held a degree or workforce credential beyond high school. By 2024, that figure had climbed to nearly 55 percent, reflecting growth in credential attainment overall—even if not all credentials meet the foundation’s benchmark for higher earnings.

“I would say for all intents and purposes it worked,” Brown said regarding the foundation’s goal to increase degree attainment nationwide. “That represents millions more people with post–high school education and training than we actually saw a generation ago.”

This year’s release establishes the national baseline for the foundation’s 2040 goal: 75 percent of adults in the U.S. labor force should have a college degree or credential beyond high school that leads to economic prosperity, which the foundation defines as earning at least 15 percent more than someone with only a high school diploma.

“That [15 percent] benchmark gives us this clear, consistent way to move the conversation away from just opinions … to outcomes and real data,” Brown said, adding that the updated data tool allows the foundation to see “not just who earned a credential but whether that credential is actually delivering on the promise of economic payoff.”

Labor force landscape: Brown said bachelor’s and graduate or professional degrees remain the most reliable pathway to higher earnings. About 70 percent of U.S. adults with a bachelor’s degree earn at least 15 percent more than those with only a high school diploma, and the share rises to roughly 80 percent for those with graduate or professional degrees.

Outcomes for associate degrees and shorter-term credentials vary more widely. About 55 percent of those with a certification and about 54 percent of those with an associate degree earn above the 15 percent benchmark, the report found.

“Those point to real opportunities to strengthen quality and alignment with labor market demand,” Brown said. “We see that many credentials are delivering this value, and we see that others can do better.”

Several states—plus the District of Columbia—exceed the national average share of U.S. adults in the labor force with high-quality degrees, with some already surpassing 50 percent. This includes Colorado with 51.7 percent, Massachusetts with 52.5 percent and the District of Columbia with 67.7 percent.

At the other end of the spectrum, those with the lowest shares include West Virginia with 34.6 percent, Nevada with 33.6 percent and Puerto Rico with 25.7 percent.

“One example that I would say is more striking is Puerto Rico,” Brown said. Despite having the lowest share of adults earning at least 1 percent more than those with only a high school diploma, the territory has a relatively high degree-attainment rate, at 60.1 percent. She noted that Puerto Rico’s lower share is likely due to lower overall income levels.

Signs of progress: Brown said a misconception she often hears is that degrees don’t pay off for students.

“We see, especially for bachelor’s degrees, that they do for the majority of people provide at least that 15 percent,” Brown said. “What it does show me is that some credentials need to do a better job of making sure they align with the economy.”

Ultimately, Brown said the data should push institutions and policymakers to strengthen the connection between education and the labor market.

“I don’t see this as a story about education failing. I see it as a story about progress,” Brown said. “It’s a story about transparency and evolving expectations about what people are looking for and what they want to make sure they get.”

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