Refunds from Trump’s struck-down tariffs remain up in the air

The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down many of the Trump administration’s tariffs has opened a question with a potentially lucrative answer: Will businesses — and maybe even consumers — get any money back?

The short answer: Who knows.

In its lengthy opinion Friday, the court did not offer clear next steps on refunds — something Justice Brett Kavanaugh did note in his dissenting opinion.

“The Court says nothing today about whether, and if so how, the Government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has collected from importers,” Kavanaugh wrote. “But that process is likely to be a ‘mess,’ as was acknowledged at oral argument.”

Hundreds of companies, including major retailer Costco, have already filed lawsuits to get refunds on money they paid toward Trump’s tariffs.

According to the December data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, about $130 billion has been collected from Trump’s tariffs implemented under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act. One estimate from the University of Pennsylvania found that total could now be more than $175 billion, according to Reuters.

Economists noted that the process for companies to get refunds on duties paid is unclear. But U.S. businesses that might be eligible for a refund aren’t the only ones that have taken on the economic brunt of Trump’s tariffs.

Consumers have had to cough up more cash to keep up with businesses’ rising costs. An analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published last week found that almost 90% of the “economic burden” of tariffs fell on consumers and businesses.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., said in a statement that there is no “legal mechanism for consumers and many small businesses to recoup the money they have already paid.”

“Instead, giant corporations with their armies of lawyers and lobbyists can sue for tariff refunds, then just pocket the money for themselves,” she said. “It’s one more example of how the game is rigged.”

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker sent a letter to the president on Friday demanding a refund of $1,700 “for every family in Illinois.” According to his letter, Pritzker said this would bring the total owed to more than $8 billion.

President Donald Trump called the court’s decision “defective” during a White House news conference on Friday afternoon. When asked about refunds, he aimed back at the court saying “they take months and months to write an opinion and they don’t even discuss that point.”

“I guess it has to get litigated for the next two years,” he said.

When pushed further on whether he plans to pay back companies that file for refunds, Trump said, “It’s not discussed. We’ll end up being in court for the next five years.”

After the Supreme Court’s decision was announced, advocacy groups and some government officials immediately started calling for refunds to companies that paid tariffs.

We Pay the Tariffs, a group of small businesses advocating against Trump’s tariffs, immediately called for “full, fast and automatic refunds.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who filed a lawsuit against Trump’s tariffs last year, said in a statement that “every dollar unlawfully taken must be refunded immediately — with interest.”

Following the court’s ruling, two members of Congress, Steven Horsford, D-Nev., and Janelle Bynum, D-Ore., introduced a bill that would require Customs and Border Protection to “automatically refund tariffs and customs duties collected under IEEPA since January 1, 2025,” according to a release.

In his dissent, Kavanaugh added that refunds would have “significant consequences for the U.S. Treasury.”

However, at the beginning of January, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters that if the Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s tariffs, refunding the money “won’t be a problem.”

Bessent did note that it would be a “corporate boondoggle” and questioned whether companies like Costco would return the money back to their customers. He added that the refunds could take weeks, months or “over a year” to go out.

Outside of confusion over how refunds would go out, economists have said that Trump has other avenues he could explore to implement tariffs, adding another layer that complicates how and whether companies get refunded.

Just hours after the Supreme Court ruling, Trump posted on Truth Social that he planned to sign an executive order placing a 10% global tariff rate.