Oil prices hit $100 again as doubts grow about Iran ceasefire

The move in oil prices higher effectively halted a plunge that began immediately after Trump announced a ceasefire on Tuesday night. U.S. crude oil dropped more than 16% on Wednesday.

“Prices rebounded as fighting in the Middle East continued, and the ceasefire outlook deteriorated, keeping uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz firmly in focus,” wrote ING commodities analysts in a Thursday morning note. “Optimism over the ceasefire faded after Tehran said several terms of the agreement had been breached.”

On Wednesday, Iranian media reported that the Strait of Hormuz, a key component of the ceasefire, had been shuttered again after Israel struck Lebanon. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, also said that the U.S. violated the deal.

“Ceasefire violations carry explicit costs and STRONG responses,” the speaker wrote on X.

Iran insists that a halt to Israeli strikes in Lebanon be included in any ceasefire deal. The U.S. and Israel, however, say it is a separate conflict.

Likewise, the U.S. demands that the Strait of Hormuz be fully opened to marine traffic, while Iran says it intends to police transit and exact tolls from passing ships under any ceasefire deal.

On Thursday morning, the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company also took aim at the ceasefire in a post on LinkedIn.

“This moment requires clarity,” Dr. Sultan Al Jaber wrote. “So let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled.”

“Markets remain at a critical crossroads,” Al Jaber added. “The final cargoes that transited the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict are now arriving at their destinations.”

Stocks also fell on the same concerns. “The market awaits certainty around the Middle East ceasefire with U.S. and Iranian delegations set to arrive in Pakistan today,” wrote strategists on JPMorgan’s trading desk in a note to clients.

The S&P 500 opened lower by 0.2%, the Nasdaq fell 0.3% and the Dow tumbled 200 points shortly after bell.

Since the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday evening, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has not increased. On Wednesday, just four ships passed, the lowest level since March 31, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

As of Thursday morning, U.S. crude oil prices are up more than 70% since the start of the war.

Experts say that without a substantial drop further, gas prices will likely remain elevated for consumers.

“This roller coaster may not be over yet,” said GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan on X. Still, the initial drop in oil prices on the ceasefire news could translate into “some downside to gas prices for many this weekend,” he added.