Mikie Sherrill landslide in New Jersey driven by high turnout, CBS News analysis finds

Turnout surged across New Jersey Tuesday, helping propel Democrat Mikie Sherrill to a landslide win in the race for governor. The Garden State is blowing past its turnout in its last gubernatorial contest in 2021, when Republican Jack Ciattarelli came within a few points of an upset win over Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. 

In fact, relative to 2021, all 21 of the state’s counties were seeing vote increases of at least 10% (according to CBS Elections Data Desk estimates, as of Wednesday afternoon).

But it’s the places that saw the biggest turnout jumps that tell the story of the Democrat’s succcess. The largest turnout increases were concentrated in counties that strongly voted for Sherrill, padding her margin.

Take the six counties that saw increases of over 30% in their vote totals. Hudson, Essex, Union — New Jersey’s three densest counties — all backed Sherrill by over 30-point margins and saw the largest turnout increases in the state. Within these counties, voters in places like Jersey City, Newark and Union City backed her in large numbers.

Some of these areas had high-profile local races that may have contributed to the turnout increases. For example, Jersey City saw high turnout in its competitive mayoral race, in which Councilman James Solomon will take on former Gov. Jim McGreevey in the runoff.  

As for GOP strength, the only county in Ciattarelli’s column that saw a similar vote increase was Ocean County. This traditionally Republican county on the Jersey Shore backed Ciattarelli by about 35 points, making it one of the few places where he is close to Donald Trump’s 2024 performance. However, Ocean’s turnout was not enough to overcome even larger turnout spikes in multiple urban counties that strongly backed Sherrill.

Given Democrats’ success in turning out voters in advance of Election Day, Ciattarelli’s only path to victory was to win voters who turned out in person Tuesday. Instead, CBS News’ estimates suggest that Sherrill won Election-Day voters, too, building on the lead she banked early.