Mexico announces the largest fentanyl seizure in its history. The timing may not be a coincidence.

Mexican soldiers and marines have seized over a ton of fentanyl pills in two raids in the north, with officials calling it the biggest catch of the synthetic opioid in the country’s history.

The raids came after a sharp drop in fentanyl seizures in Mexico earlier this year, and days after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico unless those countries cracked down on the flow of migrants and drugs across the border.

Experts say the timing may not be a coincidence.

“It is clear that the Mexican government has been managing the timing of fentanyl seizures,” said security analyst David Saucedo. “But under the pressure by Donald Trump, it appears President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is willing to the increase the capture of drug traffickers and drug seizures that Washington is demanding.”

Saucedo said it’s clear the Mexican government “doesn’t see fentanyl as one of its own problems, and fighting it isn’t its priority,” He added there would only be big busts “when there is pressure from Washington.”

Mexico’s top security official said soldiers and marines late Tuesday spotted two men carrying guns in the northern state of Sinaloa, home to the drug cartel of the same name.

They chased the men, who ran into two houses. In one house soldiers found about 660 pounds of fentanyl, and in the other a truck packed with about 1,750 pounds of the drug, mostly in pill form.

“In Sinaloa, we achieved the biggest seizure in history of fentanyl,” Public Safety Secretary Omar Garcia Harfuch wrote in his social media accounts. Several guns were also seized and two men were arrested.

President Sheinbaum said Wednesday that “this is an investigation that had been going on for some time, and yesterday it bore fruit.”

But that claim contrasts with the seemingly random nature of the bust, which started when a military patrol “noticed the presence of two men carrying what appeared to be guns.”

In the past, Mexican security forces have sometimes used the story of following armed men running into houses as a pretext to enter homes without search warrants. In at least one case, the government version was disproved by security camera footage.

The latest haul was striking because fentanyl seizures in Mexico had fallen dramatically in the first half of the year. At some points during the summer, under former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, federal forces reported seizures amounted to as little as 50 grams (2 ounces) per week.

Figures for the first half of 2024 show that Mexican federal forces seized only 286 pounds (130 kilograms) of fentanyl nationwide between January and June, down 94% from the 5,135 pounds (2,329 kilograms) seized in 2023.

The synthetic opioid has been blamed for about 70,000 overdose deaths annually in the United States, and U.S. officials have tried to step up efforts to seize it as it comes over the border, often in the form of counterfeit pills made in Mexico from precursor chemicals largely imported from China.

As “60 Minutes” reported, the fentanyl crisis began 10 years ago when the cartels started to wrestle control of the supply chain from China, purchasing the drug’s precursor chemicals to make fentanyl themselves in clandestine labs in Mexico. In 2019, China “scheduled,” or blocked, finished fentanyl from being exported to the U.S., further cementing the cartels’ domination of the pipeline. 

López Obrador always denied that fentanyl is even produced in Mexico, though experts – and even members of his own administration – acknowledge that it is.

And if Mexico doesn’t go after those fentanyl production facilities, then they will still be churning out similar quantities in the future.

“It’s a very very big seizure,” Saucedo said. “But if they don’t dismantle the labs, this kind of production will continue.”

Also Wednesday, the U.S. State Department announced it was increasing the reward for the top leader of another cartel, Nemesio Oseguera, from $10 million to $15 million.

Oseguera, known by his nickname “El Mencho,” leads the Jalisco cartel, which like Sinaloa, is heavily involved in the manufacture and distribution of fentanyl and methamphetamines.

Last month, the son-in-law of “El Mencho” was arrested in California and charged with drug trafficking. Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said Cristian Fernando Gutierrez-Ochoa “allegedly faked his own death and assumed a false identity to evade justice and live a life of luxury in California.”