March Madness: Oddsmaker gives insight on tournament lacking upsets

There hasn’t been much madness this March.

In a tournament normally filled with upsets and Cinderellas, the bracket has gone chalk in many cases.

For just the second time since 2007, and the sixth time ever, no 13, 14, 15 or 16 seed posted an upset. And for the second time in tournament history, the Final Four features all No. 1 seeds.

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The Match Madness logo during a First Four practice at UD Arena. (Rick Osentoski/Imagn Images)

Due to the lack of upsets, Johnny Avello, an oddsmaker at DraftKings, said the bettor has done will this year due to a popular trend.

“There were a lot of moneyline parlays. So the bettors have had a very good run,” Avello said.

Another trend in recent years has been betting on every upset in the first round. Despite a low win-loss record, the return on investment would be high, thanks to teams like UMBC, Fairleigh Dickinson and St. Peter’s.

But that trend did not pan out this year. The lowest seed to win a game was a No. 12 seed, and the spread favored 12th-seeded Colorado State against No. 5 Memphis.

The DraftKings logo displayed on a phone in Krakow, Poland, Sept. 21, 2021. (Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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“The favorites won 12 out of the 16 games straight up on Thursday and went 9-7 against the number. They were 13-3 on Friday straight up and 10-6 against the number. We did not see the trend that usually happens,” said Avello.

Duke is now even money to win the title, and bettors have jumped all in on the Blue Devils, Avello added.

“They’ve been the team that’s been bet all year long,” he said, adding Duke would be, at minimum, a 4.5-point favorite no matter who it might face in the final. Duke is -5.5 against Houston.

Duke Blue Devils forward Cooper Flagg cuts the net after winning the 2025 ACC championship game against the Louisville Cardinals at Spectrum Center. (Jim Dedmon/Imagn Images)

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Duke will take on Houston after the Florida-Auburn matchup Saturday. The first game tips off at 6:09 p.m. ET in San Antonio.

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