Latino voters who backed Trump could be a key factor in New Jersey governor’s race

With just weeks to go, the New Jersey governor’s race is tightening and garnering national attention as an early test of voter sentiment about President Trump’s second term and the ability of Democrats to counter Republicans ahead of next year’s midterm elections. 

New Jersey’s Latino electorate is emerging as a potentially decisive voting bloc in the battle between Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who is backed by Mr. Trump.

Most independent polls show Sherrill leading with likely voters ahead of the election on Nov. 4, though generally just by single digits. 

Democrats are worried — national party sources tell CBS News that Sherrill “needs help,” and allies have begun to rally more support for her in the closing weeks of the campaign. 

“We’re jumping right into this New Jersey race, despite a lot of folks thinking it’s a blue state and we may not need to act,” says Janet Murguia, president of UnidosUS Action Fund. 

The political arm of the nation’s largest Latino advocacy organization, UnidosUS, is expected to announce it’s endorsing Sherrill on Wednesday, betting that Latinos could help decide this race.  

“She’s strong on housing, healthcare, and education which our community and Latino voters care a lot about, and she doesn’t see Latinos as an afterthought,” said Murguia, adding that 2025 has underscored the importance of a governor’s role in fending off the Trump administration, citing California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker as examples. 

Sherrill, some Democrats admit, has struggled with her message, which often echoes the playbook former Vice President Kamala Harris employed in her failed 2024 White House campaign. Several Democrats tell CBS News that Sherrill’s campaign has yet to articulate a compelling economic message and has failed to sharpen the focus on “kitchen table” issues like inflation and cost of living.

In the presidential election, Harris carried New Jersey with 52% of the vote, but Mr. Trump made significant inroads, especially among Latino communities. 

New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District provides a stark illustration of the trend. Voters elected Democrat Nellie Pou to the U.S. House last year, but in an election-night surprise, Mr. Trump carried the district at the presidential level. For reference, former President Joe Biden carried it by 19 points in 2020. This is a heavily Latino district and one of just 13 districts across the country that backed Mr. Trump while electing a Democrat to the House.

Mr. Trump made substantial inroads in other heavily Latino areas, too. For example, the working-class city of Paterson has a population that is over 60% Latino. Mr. Trump’s share of the vote there nearly doubled between 2020 and 2024, cutting the Democratic margin in half. And Passaic, a city with a 70% Latino population, actually flipped to Mr. Trump in 2024. In both of these cities, his vote margin increased by over 30 points. He also flipped the county and became the first Republican to win the presidential vote in Passaic in over 30 years.

While these shifts were partly due to Biden voters switching to Mr. Trump in 2024, they also occurred as a result of changes in turnout. New Jersey saw a decline in turnout rates from 2020 to 2024, and the drops were more pronounced among Latino voters and registered Democrats. Many Biden 2020 voters simply stayed home, helping explain why Harris’ vote totals were much lower than Biden’s in these communities, while Mr. Trump’s actually rose slightly.

The gaps in turnout between White voters and voters of color often increase in off-year elections, so a big question in 2025 is what turnout will look like in the state’s ethnically diverse communities, like those in Passaic. That will shape the final vote margin between Sherill and Ciattarelli.

While Republicans made inroads with Latinos in New Jersey and across the country last year, many have soured on Mr. Trump and the GOP.

CBS News polling throughout the 2024 campaign pointed to dissatisfaction with the economy and rising prices as key drivers of voting decisions. Today, CBS News polling indicates that many voters are still unhappy with the direction of the country and the economy specifically.

According to the latest CBS News national survey, most Latinos rank either the economy / jobs (26%) or inflation (25%) as the most important issue facing the country. Two-thirds of Latinos rate the national economy negatively. And Mr. Trump’s job approval rating has slid to 38% among Latinos, from a high of 49% at the start of his term.

In particular, Mr. Trump’s approval rating on handling inflation has fallen to a 32% among Latinos, and majorities say his policies are costing the U.S. jobs and making them worse off financially.

Nationwide, most Latinos now say whether or not they support him, they believe that Mr. Trump is not following through on the promises he made during his campaign. 

These numbers suggest this may be why the Sherrill campaign is trying to link Ciattarelli and Mr. Trump as much as possible, as well as emphasizing the cost of living in the state. It remains to be seen whether Democrats will be able to reverse recent trends by winning back some Biden-to-Trump Latinos and by giving their infrequent voters a reason to turn out this fall.