How Trump election win could affect Israel, Ukraine wars

Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, said Netanyahu was undoubtedly “betting on Donald Trump” after having “run the clock on Joe Biden.”

Gerges said he feared that under Trump, Washington, already Israel’s biggest arms supplier, would “basically give Netanyahu whatever he wants — in particular, a green light to not only continue the war in Gaza and Lebanon but even to escalate the fight against Iran itself.” Already, U.S. spending on Israel’s military operations reached more than $17.9 billion from Oct. 7 last year  to Sept. 30, according to Brown University’s Costs of War Project.

Recalling Trump’s 2016 presidency, Gerges said in a phone interview Tuesday that the Republican had already shown a willingness to “go beyond the call of duty to give Netanyahu everything,” including his controversial decision to officially recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and his recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the contested Golan Heights.

Despite those concerns, Gerges said the overall sentiment in the Arab world was that ultimately it didn’t “matter who wins the White House” as “American foreign policy is historically wedded back to Israel.”

Many Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where Israel believes Trump’s win will mean more freedom to expand settlements, appeared to share that sentiment.

“As a Palestinian, I think it doesn’t matter,” said Riyad Awad, 61, in the central West Bank city of Ramallah on Wednesday. “Republican or Democratic — they didn’t help us.” 

In video captured by NBC News’ crew on the ground in Gaza, Palestinians could be seen gathered in a makeshift shelter in Khan Younis watching the election results roll in on a television screen.

Some expressed deep concern over Trump’s victory, while others were curious about whether he might ultimately be the right figure to stop the fighting after months of failed U.S. efforts.

“He said that he’s going to end the war,” said 19-year-old Hussam Alsharif, who was displaced from his home further south in the enclave by Israel’s offensive. “He’s a man of his own word. Once he calls the shots, no one can do anything but obey him.” 

Ukraine offers public praise

Ukraine sought to project a similar lack of concern over how the result might transform America’s approach to the war in Europe.

Trump said he would be able to resolve Russia’s invasion before he even takes office, which would surely require huge concessions that Kyiv deems unacceptable. He has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and incorrectly blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for starting the war, while refusing to commit to sending more aid to the embattled country.

Trump will make “attempts at appeasement with the aggressor” — ie Russia, said Maksym Kostetskyi, head of the Centre for Policy Making, a think tank based in Kyiv. “I am afraid it would have negative effects on Ukrainian society,” he said, “as to talk about negotiations” when Russia is on the offensive is “absolutely unacceptable.”

Still, Zelenskyy publicly welcomed Trump’s victory, saying he looked forward to an “era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership.”