Holiday airfares reach 10-year high as jet fuel costs spike. Here’s how to save on flights.

Americans traveling for the holidays this year could face sticker shock as high jet fuel costs stemming from the Iran war drive up domestic airfares, according to a new forecast.  

The average round-trip ticket for a flight within the U.S. during the Thanksgiving break is $402, up $95 from the same period a year ago, fare aggregator Hopper said in an analysis. Round-trip domestic airfares around Christmas are averaging $452, up $85 from last year, according to the firm. 

Tickets for round-trip flights in the U.S. are already up 31% compared to the same period last year, reflecting elevated jet fuel costs, according to Hopper. 

“Months of elevated jet fuel costs due to the conflict in Iran have contributed to Thanksgiving and Christmas airfares reaching 10-year highs,” the company said.

The conflict in the Middle East has choked oil flows from the region, constraining global supply. As oil prices have risen, the cost of distillates such as jet fuel and diesel has also jumped. To offset those costs, airlines have hiked fares, tacked on passenger surcharges and cut routes.

Typically, jet fuel costs account for up to 30% of an airline’s operating costs, according to airline industry analysts.

Before the Iran war began in late February, jet fuel averaged about $99 per barrel globally, according to the International Air Transport Association. It peaked at $209 in April and hit $195 a barrel in mid-September, IATA said, citing data from S&P Global Energy Platts.

“When you see a more than doubling of that cost, it’s inevitable that prices will have to increase to offset it,” Hopper economist Hayley Berg told CBS News.

The price of Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, briefly topped $101 a barrel on Monday before receding to $97.83 amid hopes of a deal between the U.S. and Iran to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A barrel of Brent traded at roughly $72 before the war started. 

How to save on holiday travel

With airline tickets expected to remain pricey so long as jet fuel costs remain high, travel experts have some tips for saving on holiday trips.

If possible, be flexible on your destination. While many people travel home during the holidays, those heading to warm destinations can save money by comparison shopping. 

“Look at different destinations that offer a similar experience,” she said, adding that it can save hundreds of dollars on a round-trip ticket.

Book before Halloween. No matter when or where consumers plan to travel, don’t wait to book your trip — fares aren’t expected to drop as the holiday season approaches. 

While oil flows from the Middle East have risen and now top 75% of pre-war volumes, crude prices will take longer to fall, according to Gregory Brew, an energy analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

Berg said that travelers should lock in fares for both Thanksgiving and Christmas trips before Halloween, after which she expects fares to spike. 

Travel off-peak. Berg advised flying on Monday or Tuesday before Thanksgiving, which falls on Nov. 26 this year, rather than Wednesday, when a crush of travelers is expected to flock to the nation’s airports. She also recommends returning any day other than Sunday, Nov. 29.

“You can travel on Black Friday, Saturday morning, Monday or Tuesday, but you’ll pay $250 more per round-trip ticket to fly on Sunday,” she said. 

The same advice applies around Christmas. Avoid traveling on Dec. 18, 19, 20 and on Dec. 27, the Sunday after Christmas Day.