Here’s how the economy is doing in the handful of counties that could decide the election

Miami-Dade County, Florida

• Unemployment rate: 3.1%
• Housing index: 73.5 (difficult)
• Median household income: $67,000 
• Bachelor’s degree attainment: 21.3%
• 2020 presidential election margin: Biden +7.4
• 2016 presidential election margin: Clinton +29

Though infamous as a flashpoint in the 2000 election, Miami-Dade County has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1988, including for Al Gore. 

However, Dade has seen its Republican vote-share climb in recent years. And during the pandemic, it became home to high-profile Republicans including Ken Griffin, the founder of Citadel, America’s largest hedge fund. 

That reflected a step-change in the evolution of Miami’s economy from one known for “fun and sun” to a somewhat more diverse mix of financial firms and a handful of tech groups. Thanks to surging interest from people seeking Florida’s more lax pandemic rules, the area’s economy boomed, and today Miami-Dade enjoys the lowest unemployment rate among major metros: just 2.7%. 

“We have very low unemployment in the Miami area,” said Alex Horenstein, an economist at the University of Miami. “Lots of people and companies have been moving here. … The economy in Miami is good.”

Still, the area remains heavily reliant on real estate and tourism, along with health services. Yet while median wages remain relatively lower — another reason that has attracted firms — Miami now has some of the worst home affordability in the nation.

For Miami-Dade, a buyer needs an income of about $118,000 if they’re putting 20% down on a median-priced home, which comes in at $570,000.

“We need a lot more buildings in general, whether rental or for sale, to lower these high costs of housing,” Horenstein said.  

In fact, the crisis is so acute that Dade has seen a large outflow of longtime residents, especially African Americans, in search of cheaper alternatives — though its population is bolstered by its status as an entry-point destination for international migrants across the Americas.

Dane County, Wisconsin (Madison)

• Unemployment rate: 2.6%
• Housing index: 75.7 (very difficult)
• Median household income: $85,000 
• Bachelor’s degree attainment: 32.5%
• 2020 presidential election margin: Biden +7.4
• 2016 presidential election margin: Clinton +53

Though reliably blue, Madison has become a microcosm of Wisconsin’s economic issues: more growth than it can keep up with. In particular, Epic, the nation’s most relied-upon health records management software company, and Exact Sciences, the maker of Cologuard, have spurred a hiring boom that has put unprecedented pressure on the region’s housing supply.

The area’s labor “shed,” or the areas in which the workforce now lives, “is getting bigger and bigger … and spilling into neighboring communities,” said Steven Deller, distinguished professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s department of agricultural and applied economics.

Today, putting down 20% on a median single-family home of $428,000 at 6.85% mortgage rates requires an income of $91,000 — putting it in the most-expensive 3% of Midwest counties. 

That’s changing some politics surrounding Madison, Deller said. 

“It used to be ‘Madison bleeds blue’ and the countryside was conservative or Regan Republican,” Deller said. “But as we’re seeing Madison spread, that’s changing the political dynamics in neighboring communities — with a shift toward the Dem side.” Even areas that were hardcore Republican, he said, are starting to become more competitive.