Fears Israel could replicate its ‘Gaza model’ in Lebanon as satellite imagery captures widespread destruction

Bridges blown up. Homes destroyed. More than 1 million people displaced. And plans for Israeli control over a vast swath of territory for an indefinite period.

Fears over Israel’s vow to model its invasion of southern Lebanon after its yearslong, deadly military offensive in Gaza are being increasingly voiced as satellite imagery shows the intensifying destruction in the country’s south — and a growing number of Israeli military bases established in the area.

Aid workers on the ground have described a spiraling humanitarian situation with no end in sight after Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced this week his country would be establishing a “security zone” in southern Lebanon and taking control of key river crossings, leaving hundreds of thousands of people displaced from their homes indefinitely.

Katz compared Israel’s offensive in southern Lebanon to its operations in some of the most devastated parts of the Gaza Strip, including Rafah, a border city that was largely reduced to rubble during Israel’s more than two-year assault on the enclave. He warned that families displaced from the area would not be able to return until the safety of residents of northern Israel from attacks from Iran-backed Hezbollah could be guaranteed.

Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its military action in the south, with the Israel Defense Forces announcing Thursday more troops would be joining its ground invasion in southern Lebanon with the aim of expanding its “security zone” there. The IDF said the 162nd division had “begun targeted ground activities against additional targets” alongside the 91st and 36th divisions.

Mounting destruction, death toll

Satellite imagery reviewed by NBC News appeared to show the reinforcement in the lead-up to or during the current war of five Israeli military bases that were set up during previous incursions into southern Lebanon. What appeared to be military tanks could be seen at multiple sites in recent imagery.

Meanwhile, at least seven bridges over the Litani, linking the south to the rest of the country, appear to have been struck by Israeli forces over the past month, according to satellite imagery and photos circulating on social media. Katz has said the crossings targeted were being used by Hezbollah members to move between the north and south and for the transport of weapons.

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Humanitarian groups have also warned of whole residential areas being destroyed as they sound the alarm over the mounting destruction and rising death toll in Lebanon. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that the “Gaza model must not be replicated in Lebanon” as he called on both Hezbollah and Israel to halt hostilities. The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Guterres’ call.

In Gaza, much of the Palestinian enclave was left destroyed by Israel’s more than two-year-long offensive in the wake of the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks, with more than 70,000 people killed and thousands more injured, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Even amid the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, periodic strikes have continued, with the death toll continuing to mount.

Israeli forces continue to occupy parts of the Gaza Strip, maintaining a buffer zone that constitutes around half of the territory. While President Donald Trump’s Gaza peace plan stipulates an eventual Israeli withdrawal following the disarmament of Hamas, Katz has previously said troops will remain in these so-called security zones even after an end to the war. Much of Gaza’s future is still uncertain as efforts to rebuild and bring a lasting end to the conflict have been largely delayed due to the focus on the Iran war.

Israel, which has been accused of committing genocide in Gaza by a United Nations commission and is facing the allegation in a case before the International Court of Justice, has defended its campaign in the enclave, saying its operations have targeted Hamas, despite a vast civilian toll.

Already, Guterres noted, Israel’s assault has “devastated civilian areas” in Lebanon’s south, with more than 1 million people identifying themselves as having been internally displaced. More than 1,000 people have been killed, according to data published by the Lebanese government, since fighting between Israel and Hezbollah resumed earlier this month.

‘No safe place’

Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its military action, with the IDF announcing Thursday it would be joining its ground assault in southern Lebanon with the aim of expanding its “security zone” in the area.

Dr. Tania Baban, the Lebanon country director for the Chicago-based nonprofit MedGlobal, said families were already being repeatedly displaced as a result of the Israeli military’s evacuation orders and strikes.

“What makes this crisis especially difficult is really the speed and now, unpredictability, of the strikes that are happening outside of the areas that are known to us to be risky,” she said in a voice note from Beirut on Thursday.

“So it’s almost like there’s no safe place — and where have we seen this before?” she said, repeating a phrase that has often been used by Palestinians in Gaza.

Israeli forces launched the assault in Lebanon after Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel in retaliation for its decision to attack Iran, with the U.S.-Israeli operation killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and sparking a wider conflict in the region.

Since then, fears of a long-term occupation have grown, amid outright calls from some, including far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, for Israel to take permanent control of the areas south of the Litani River, citing security advantages.

Israel occupied southern Lebanon until 2000 and has frequently launched attacks on the area in recent decades, striking out at Hezbollah, which was first founded in the 1980s when Israel occupied southern Lebanon in response to a series of attacks by the Palestine Liberation Organization. Hezbollah has long supported the destruction of Israel.

The Lebanese government had vowed in 2024 to see Hezbollah disarmed as part of a U.N.-brokered effort to bring fighting between the militant group and Israel to an end, but since then, there has been little progress in disarming the Iran-backed group. Lebanon’s government moved earlier this month to ban Hezbollah’s military activity.

Humanitarian law

Human rights experts have warned that Israel could be violating international law with its offensive in southern Lebanon.

“International humanitarian law protects civilian objects unless they are being used for military purposes,” Kenneth Roth, the former executive director of Human Rights Watch, told NBC News on Thursday. “There is no indication that Hezbollah is using the many homes that Israel is destroying.”

“Rather, Israel seems to be continuing the practice it has been using in Gaza of clearing broad swaths of homes to create a no-man’s land that it can occupy,” he said.

Meanwhile, Human Rights Watch has also accused Israel of using white phosphorus munitions over residential areas in southern Lebanon, a charge the Israeli military has denied. The IDF said earlier this month that it does possess smoke shells that contain a certain amount of white phosphorous, which are lawful under international law.

“It’s very sad and it’s very scary,” Lynn Harfoush, who grew up in Baalbek, a city east of the Litani in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley, and serves as chief of staff of the Lebanese National Bloc, a secular and reformist political party, said of the dire reality unfolding in Lebanon.

Harfoush said she feared a long-term Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon — and at the same time, she said she was furious with Hezbollah, a group she said she once supported, for its role in the hostilities.

“This period is one of the few times that I feel very helpless and I feel very scared for the future of Lebanon,” she said in a phone interview Thursday.

“Today, we feel like all of this is going to be taken away from us.”