Core inflation in February hits 2.8%, higher than expected; spending increases 0.4%

The Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure rose more than expected in February while consumer spending also posted a smaller-than-projected increase, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest monthly gain since January 2024, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective numbers of 0.3% and and 2.7%.

Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices and is generally considered a better indicator of long-term inflation trends.

In the all-items measure, the price index rose 0.3% on the month and 2.5% from a year ago, both in line with forecasts.

At the same time, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed that consumer spending accelerated 0.4% for the month, below the 0.5% forecast. That came as personal income posted a 0.8% rise, against the estimate for 0.4%.

Stock market futures briefly moved lower following the release, as did Treasury yields.

Federal Reserve officials focus on the PCE inflation reading as they consider it a broader measure that also adjusts for changes in consumer behavior and places less of an emphasis on housing than the Labor Department’s consumer price index. Shelter costs have been one of the stickier elements of inflation and rose 0.3% in the PCE measure.

“It looks like a ‘wait-and-see’ Fed still has more waiting to do,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “Today’s higher-than-expected inflation reading wasn’t exceptionally hot, but it isn’t going to speed up the Fed’s timeline for cutting interest rates, especially given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.”

Good prices increased 0.2%, led by recreational goods and vehicles, which increased 0.5%. Gasoline offset some of the increase, with the category falling 0.8%. Services prices were up 0.4%.

Households also grew more cautious with their money, as the personal saving rate increased to 4.6%, the highest since June 2024.

The report comes with markets on edge that President Donald Trump’s tariff intentions will aggravate inflation at a time when the data was making slow but steady progress back to the Fed’s 2% goal.

After cutting rates a full percentage point in 2024, the central bank has been on hold this year, with officials of late expressing concern over the effect the import duties will have on prices. Economists tend to consider tariffs as one-off events that do not feed through to longer-lasting inflation pressures, but the encompassing scope of Trump’s tariffs and the potential for an aggressive global trade war are changing the stakes.