Chicago Cubs vs. Cardinals under 8 pick with Boyd and May starting

I took two losses on Monday in the games, with both of them ending 3-2. However, yesterday, I went 1-1 as I took the Marlins on the moneyline and Sandy Alcantara spun a gem for them. The loss was actually a win for a lot of people if they played just the moneyline. I got a bit greedy and played the run line, resulting in a loss. The Yankees won the game 3-2, but obviously didn’t cover the run line. Three losses this week, all on games with a final score of 3-2. That’s hard to do.

The Chicago Cubs are somehow making this team work. I’m a Cubs fan, so I have to give a bit of kudos to them because I assumed they were dead in the water when virtually every starter on their staff had been injured at one point or another. For now, the team is 61-46 with one of the better records in the National League. They aren’t exactly one-dimensional, either. They can beat you with homers, or they can move station to station.

Matthew Boyd #16 of the Chicago Cubs pitches in the fourth inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels at Wrigley Field on April 1, 2026, in Chicago, Illinois. (Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)

However, this team has been absolutely destroyed when it comes to pitching. They have a collective ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP of 1.27. Considering all of the injuries, those numbers actually aren’t terrible. They’ve been getting good production out of today’s starter, Matthew Boyd. For the year, Boyd is 6-1 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Boyd has been solid on the road this season with a 3.21 ERA. Since his return from the injured list in June, he has made six starts and covered 35 innings. He has allowed just nine earned runs in those innings. Cardinals hitters are batting .267 against him in 30 at-bats.

The St. Louis Cardinals are having a better season than expected, but are still slightly below .500 at the moment. I don’t expect them to make any big splashes this season, as they are probably ahead of schedule for their team development. They have a lot of young talent on the roster, and it doesn’t make a ton of sense to abandon them via trade, or even add a ton of guys when they are just trying to develop and figure things out. Still, the Cardinals should be proud of where they are at currently, but know they have work to do if they want to get into the Wild Card race.

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May reacts after throwing a complete-game one-hitter against the San Diego Padres at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Mo., on June 15, 2026. (Jeff Curry/Imagn Images)

It would help for them to get some pitching if they want a true shot this season. Dustin May has been decent for them, but not great. For the season, May is 5-7 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He is pitching in an optimal setting for him, though. He has a 3.45 home ERA and a 2.60 night ERA. Both are situations for tonight. In his last five home starts, he has 29.1 innings pitched and just six earned runs allowed. He hasn’t faced the Cubs this season, but they are hitting .306 against him.

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I could see the Cardinals winning this game after dropping the first two of the series. It would be a way for them to salvage a bit against a tough opponent. I am not sure I feel overly confident in fading Boyd at the moment, though. I also don’t think May is a guy I want to fade in this spot. I’ll lay off the sides.

Shirtless fans celebrate after the St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Kansas City Royals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Mo., on May 16, 2026. (Jeff Curry/Imagn Images)

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This should be a lower-scoring game. Both pitchers are throwing rather well in these situations, and I think both can find a way to limit opposing damage. Give me the under eight runs for the game.

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