Can it make a difference?

CIUDAD JUÁREZ, Mexico — More than 2,500 Mexican troops, from the states of Tlaxcala, Durango, Yucatán and Mexico City, have fanned out along this historically violent border city in a show of force. 

The troops are part of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s attempt to stave off President Donald Trump’s executive order announcing tariffs on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese goods coming to the U.S., a move aimed at pressuring the three countries into stopping the flow of fentanyl and immigrants into the U.S. 

Trump delayed the tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days, after both countries announced steps to ramp up security at their borders. 

In total, Sheinbaum is deploying 10,000 troops across Mexico’s border with the U.S. The White House has touted Mexico’s troop deployment as a victory.

The debate over the troops’ deterrent effect is ramping up. One human smuggler who spoke to NBC News said the troops would not make a difference, but conceded Trump’s stricter border policies had significantly cut into his business. 

‘Under orders’

During an interview along the fence across the border from New Mexico, Mexican National Guard Maj. Alexander Vásquez Hernández attributed the drop in illegal border crossings to the amount of new personnel in the area.

“The principal objective is to inhibit the trafficking of fentanyl,” he said in Spanish, adding that the deployment of troops has helped them recognize key transit points. 

Mexican National Guard troops have been mobilized to at least 13 cities from Tijuana to Matamoros across the nearly 2,000-mile border.

“It has increased security,” Vásquez Hernández said. “We have had positive results with the deployment of more personnel here.”

But critics say that the troops will do little to stop illegal immigration or the flow of drugs like fentanyl — and instead amount to an unnecessary show of force that militarizes the border as a political stunt.

“This is a waste of government resources,” said Luis Zavala de Alba, the director of Casa Monarca del Migrante, a shelter for migrant families in Monterrey, Mexico, and a visiting professor at Yale University.

Migrants at Casa Monarca have told Zavala de Alba they might just stay in Mexico because they’re not sure they can get to the U.S. But he said that “these measures will contain the flow temporarily, while organized crime finds ways of crossing desperate migrants.”

With border activity being significantly quieter than usual, NBC News pressed Vásquez Hernández on whether the troops were just a show for Trump — as critics argue.

“We don’t have that answer,” he said, declining to wade into politics. “We’re just working under orders to maintain a presence.”

Guard members in full tactical gear are patrolling the border. Recently, they discovered a large, sophisticated tunnel just feet from El Paso, Texas. It measured 4 by 6 feet across with a complete lighting and ventilation system. 

Because most fentanyl is smuggled into the U.S. in vehicles through legal ports of entry — not through rural stretches of the border — the National Guard and the Mexican Army have increased their presence at official border crossings.

Illegal border crossings dropped drastically after the U.S. tightened asylum restrictions during the latter part of President Joe Biden’s administration. 

After Trump was re-elected, Customs and Border Protection said the number of crossings fell another 35% from December to January. Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, said this week that the Border Patrol was seeing just 229 encounters a day along the entire border, down from a peak of 11,000 a day during Biden’s term.

As part of its crackdown, the U.S. State Department has designated Mexican drug cartels as well as MS-13 and the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua as foreign terrorist organizations, according to a document published Thursday in the Federal Register. A U.S. official also told NBC News that the CIA has expanded drone surveillance flights to target cartels.

Smuggling is down, but ‘it won’t make a difference’

Donning a mask, Marcos, a human smuggler, agreed to speak to NBC News on the condition that his last name be withheld. He works in southern Mexico: The city of Tapachula is a major bottleneck for migrants coming from Central America.

“It won’t make a difference,” he said of the troops. “It’s foolishness.”

This is not the first time Mexico has deployed troops for border enforcement. On the campaign trail, Trump said that he had convinced Mexico to send thousands of troops during his first term.

But the second Trump administration is eager to promote early successes in its current crackdown. According to a Customs and Border Protection internal memo obtained by NBC News, Honduran Frontier Police earlier this month intercepted a bus with 23 migrants who told them they were abandoning the journey to the U.S. and returning to their home countries because they’d been detained in Mexico and deported to Guatemala.

Marcos said he’s been smuggling migrants for six years and won’t stop — at least in the short term. When pressed on whether he considers himself a criminal, he responded that while what he does may be against the law, he rationalizes it morally.

“I’ve never abandoned or robbed anyone,” he insisted. “It’s like a travel agency. …. People have a dream. And if not for us, many of those in Latin America and elsewhere, it wouldn’t be possible.” 

But he did concede that his business has plummeted by 80% since Trump took office. 

He said the cost for his services depends on nationality. Someone from Central America costs $12,000-$18,000; from South America, $14,000-$26,000; from Europe or Asia, $40,000.

Migrants often scrounge up the money from relatives in the U.S. or by becoming indebted to cartels. But Marcos pleads ignorance.

“This is something we don’t ask,” he said, adding that while he doesn’t work for a cartel, he must often pay them to move migrants through their territory.

“Migration is a business for everyone,” he said.

Before Trump took office, he said his operations typically moved dozens of people per week, earning him personally about $5,000 to $6,000 a month. Now, he expects to make about $1,000 a month.

Still, he thinks Trump is mistaken — his policies will not end up deterring people from coming to the U.S.  

“I think he is focusing on the issue of migration the wrong way,” he said. “Instead of closing the border, he should look farther south to implement measures against corrupt people in our countries.”