Bryce Miller vs. MacKenzie Gore with Rangers favored and over 7.5

We are in a bit of a dull period for sports. We don’t have a ton of the major sports going on at the moment. The NBA has taken a break from Summer League (which set viewership records, by the way). The NFL mini-camps haven’t officially started. The NHL does have free agency going on, but most of the bigger names are signed. That leaves us with just baseball, which is fine by me – I love betting on it. Luckily, we have some great games today as well, like this one between the Mariners and Rangers.

The Seattle Mariners are really frustrating because on paper this looks like a team that should be running away with not only their division, but among the best in the American League. That is not the case, unfortunately. The Mariners are 51-52 for the season and have been pretty poor on the road with a 21-29 record. I keep waiting for this team to turn it on, but they are just average. Their offense struggles regularly. The pitching staff is still dominant, but they aren’t getting the support needed.

Seattle Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez, left, reacts with third base coach Manny Acta after hitting a two-run home run during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres, Monday, July 4, 2022, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

Today the Mariners get arguably the best pitcher in their rotation this season, Bryce Miller, to throw. Miller is 4-4 for the year with a 2.27 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. The problem for Seattle is that he didn’t start the year until May. His ERA by month has also increased every month from 1.71 in May to 2.19 in June, and now 3.06 in July. To be clear, anyone would take those numbers, but it is something to monitor. He has been substantially worse on the road than at home, as well. He has allowed only 16 earned runs this year, but 13 of those have been on the road.

The Texas Rangers are actually leading the American League West at the moment. It isn’t a big surprise after they reinvested in their rotation in the offseason. The team doesn’t have super elite hitting, but they do still have some very potent bats in the lineup. Their batting average is one of the better ones in the league at .247, but they aren’t scoring a ton of runs at just 427 for the season. And that pitching staff they tried to improve is throwing to a 4.32 ERA.

Texas Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., on May 7, 2026. (Brad Penner/Imagn Images)

Tonight, the major addition they made in the offseason, MacKenzie Gore, is toeing the rubber. Gore has been fine for the Rangers with a 6-8 record, 4.80 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP. I do think his WHIP is something that may indicate he can lower his ERA. He has been better at home as well, with a 3.44 ERA. July has been a bit of a rough month for him, with 18 earned runs allowed already, including three of four starts with at least five earned runs allowed. He has faced Seattle twice this season at home; he went five innings, struck out nine hitters, and allowed one hit in the scoreless appearance.

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I don’t love the Mariners in this situation. I know they have the better hitter, but this is a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde situation with Miller. On the road, he is just not nearly as good as at home. Gore hasn’t been elite, but he has been much better, and more reliable at home than he has on the road. Seattle has also struggled overall on the road.

Texas Rangers’ Ezequiel Duran runs towards home plate to score on an error by Cleveland Guardians left fielder Cooper Ingle in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Cleveland, Tuesday, June 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

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For those reasons, I’m taking the Rangers tonight. Gore is a good pitcher, and I do think he can get a win to open this series. Texas is 4-2 against the Mariners this season and already swept them once at home this season. I just think it is a bad situation and spot for the Mariners. I also think that the total goes over 7.5 tonight.

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