Adam Schefter suggests NFL draft lottery ahead of potential Arch Manning entry

Arch Manning’s junior season at Texas will be under a heavy spotlight this upcoming college football season, and many believe he’s the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and become the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

It’s not a certainty Manning will decide to go pro next year, but he does have the option to do so being three years removed from high school. 

If he does, ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter says the league should borrow from the NBA and host a draft lottery. 

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Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning warms up before the Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Jan. 1, 2025. (Brett Davis/Imagn Images)

The NBA’s draft lottery is designed so teams can’t tank a season for the first overall selection in the following year’s draft. Though there was debate Monday about the Dallas Mavericks being awarded the first pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, they had just a 1.8% chance of getting the pick. 

Granted, NBA teams still try to lose to increase their percentage of winning the first pick in the lottery. But the process still works, and Schefter agrees with the NBA’s decision not to incentivize losing altogether.

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“The more I think about it, the more I think the NFL should be in that business,” Schefter said on ESPN Radio’s “Unsportsmanlike.” “They don’t want teams to tank. They don’t want teams to lose. We had a couple situations last year where, in the last game of the year, the [New England] Patriots are putting in Joe Milton. I’m not telling you they’re trying to lose, but they certainly don’t want to win.”

Arch Manning (16) of the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium April 20, 2024, in Austin, Texas.  (The University of Texas Athletics/University Images via Getty Images)

Milton did lead the Patriots over the Bills in Week 18, 23-16, but Buffalo sat most of its starters for the playoffs. 

Still, Schefter’s idea is one that might catch on.

“If nothing else, if the NFL were able to implement a lottery system, they’d have one more night of ratings,” Schefter said. “They’re doing shows for everything else. Why would there not be a draft lottery show? That would rate huge. Could you imagine a year where there is a top quarterback prospect or the year Arch Manning comes out? They put that in primetime, a half-hour special primetime NFL Draft Lottery. Come on, it’s a home run.”

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning throws before the 2024 SEC championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.  (Brett Davis/Imagn Images)

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With Quinn Ewers drafted by the Miami Dolphins, Manning is the presumptive starter for the Longhorns for the 2025-26 college season. He has flashed his talent in games Ewers was hurt or Texas was up big, but he’s never had to lead the team through a full season. 

Manning hasn’t hinted one way or another regarding his draft status for 2026.. 

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