The Untapped Potential of Adult Learners

Nationwide, demand for workers with postsecondary credentials remains strong, even as demographic trends threaten to shrink the pipeline of prospective college students. In California, the number of high school graduates is projected to decline by more than 30 percent in the coming years, and college-going rates remain below previous levels.

At the same time, a college degree remains an important avenue to economic mobility for low- and middle-income families in the state, even as rising living costs put additional pressure on households. A new report from the research and policy organization California Competes argues that one potential solution to the state’s workforce and economic challenges lies in a population often overlooked by higher education: adults with a high school diploma but no college degree.

An estimated 6.4 million Californians ages 25 to 54 fall into this category, which the report refers to as “potential graduates.” Nearly half—48 percent, or roughly 3.1 million—have earned some college credits but not a degree, highlighting an opportunity for institutions to re-engage adults who have previously pursued higher education.

Su Jin Jez, chief executive officer of California Competes, said one of the biggest barriers to reaching these adults is that higher education remains largely structured around 18-year-old students with few responsibilities outside of college.

“Even the traditional 18-year-old in California is a lot different than they were 60 years ago,” Jez said, noting that the state’s higher education system has changed little since the Master Plan for Higher Education formalized its structure in 1960, despite significant shifts in the student population and economy over the past six decades.

“I would love for us to really think about who are the people in our state who should be in college, want to be in college and could be in college if we had a better structure for higher education,” she said.

The untapped population: The report notes that in the coming years, 46 percent of California jobs will require a college degree, raising concerns about whether the state will have enough college graduates to meet future workforce demands. Meanwhile, roughly 56 percent of the state’s working-age adults hold a college degree or other postsecondary credential, well below Gov. Gavin Newsom’s goal of 70 percent attainment by 2030.

Beyond identifying the size of California’s potential graduate population, the report examines their employment, family and financial circumstances to better understand the challenges they may face in pursuing a college degree.

Nearly three-quarters of potential graduates, or 74 percent, are employed, including 60 percent who work full-time, while 42 percent are parents of children under 18. Among those who are employed, three in 10 work in service or retail jobs, which often have unpredictable schedules.

Financial pressures create another potential barrier. Nearly half of the potential graduates, or 46 percent, live in households earning less than a living wage, defined in the report as the minimum income needed to cover basic necessities such as housing, food, transportation, health care and childcare, with estimates varying by household size and local living costs. Among potential graduates in single-adult households with children, fewer than a quarter earn a living wage.

Jez said the goal should be to ensure that students experience the benefits of higher education from the moment they enroll, rather than only after they complete a degree. That means connecting students with the state’s public assistance programs, such as CalFresh and CalWORKs, as well as providing access to quality childcare and safe, affordable housing.

“They see the value of higher education, but oftentimes that is not enough to actually get someone to take the step to enroll,” Jez said. “What we can do to make college more affordable for folks is to get people access to what they’re already eligible for.”

Geography shapes access to higher education, with about 40 percent of potential graduates living in California’s inland and more rural regions, where college options may be more limited.

The report also highlights the racial and ethnic diversity of the potential graduate population. Nearly half are Latino, predominantly of Mexican heritage, and most are people of color. Nearly half a million have limited English proficiency, underscoring the importance of integrating English-language instruction with college-level education and career avenues.

“There’s a racial justice issue and a real equity issue around income and the geographical diversity of our state,” Jez said. “Diversity is what makes California incredible, but it also means policymaking needs to be really targeted and intentional.”

Making college accessible: The report identifies institutional and policy changes that could help more adults enroll or return to college and complete a credential, including expanding online and hybrid instruction, awarding credit for prior learning, simplifying re-enrollment and credit transfer, removing Cal Grant barriers that exclude older students, and expanding affordable childcare for student parents.

Jez pointed to Shasta College and California State University, Sacramento, as examples of institutions working to better serve adult learners. Shasta College, for instance, offers an Accelerated College Education program that provides a structured, fast-track route for working adults to earn an associate degree or certificate.

For Jez, the findings underscore the need to rethink how higher education is structured and whom institutions are designed to serve.

“If you missed a moment when you’re at 18—or at 22 even—it shouldn’t be that you are now resigned to not be able to contribute to the state in the way that you most meaningfully could or that you don’t have the economic stability that would give you the ability to thrive,” Jez said.

“Our state, our higher ed institutions, need to recognize that it’s not just about enrollment management and budget,” she added. “It really is about California continuing to be a leader in our country and our world, and there’s a real moral imperative … to meaningfully connect Californians to higher education.”

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