NCAN Data Finds College Becoming Even Less Affordable

Despite the availability of state grant programs, federal aid for low-income students and even federal student loans, the cost of the public four-year college is out of reach for students by an average of $1,801, according to a new analysis of 2023–24 data by the National College Attainment Network.

NCAN’s Affordability Gap report, which also takes into account expected family contribution and summer wages, revealed that only about one in three public four-year colleges were affordable. The calculations show 12 states where aid, family contributions and earnings didn’t cover tuition and emergency expenses for any public four-year college. The odds of affordability at two-year colleges were not much better: Seven states have no affordable community colleges and nearly 60 percent of community colleges were financially out of reach, resulting in an average gap of $1,228, according to the report.

NCAN measures affordability by determining whether a student’s tuition and emergency expenses are less than or equal to the combination of the average federal and state aid, federal student loans, family contribution, and wages from a summer job. The affordability gap is calculated by subtracting student aid and contributions from the cost of tuition and emergency expenses. 

This year’s average affordability gap was larger than it’s been in past editions of this annual report, according to NCAN. 

The affordability gap is widening despite a lull in tuition increases and a $500 boost to the annual maximum Pell Grant in 2023–24. NCAN attributed the increasing unaffordability of college to inflation—the rising costs of living outweighed tuition and fees for the average student in that academic year, according to the report. 

The authors note in the report that “investments in public higher education programs have struggled to keep pace, eroding the purchasing power of available aid.” 

NCAN argues that the college-affordability issue creates a looming threat to the workforce. 

“While it is still too early to know exactly how AI will reshape the nation’s workforce, it’s clear that the jobs of the future will require skilled workers who can adapt to emerging technologies and navigate the ever-changing labor market,” the authors say. “Higher education will play a central role in equipping students with the knowledge and critical thinking they need to be resilient in the face of these changes, but only if it remains within financial reach.”

NCAN called on Congress to increase funding for the Pell program, and for state leaders to continue to invest in need-based aid even as their budgets are strained by federal cuts to Medicaid and SNAP.

“Without action, students will face shrinking access to the postsecondary education that fuels economic mobility and strengthens our workforce,” NCAN wrote.

Across NCAN’s sample of 570 community colleges and 542 four-year colleges, the average institution was affordable in only four states: Arizona, Mississippi, Montana and New Mexico. Even there, not every public college was affordable, the report found.

The affordability crisis was dire in other states. For example, the average student in New Hampshire can’t cover a tuition bill for a community college by an average margin of more than $11,000 per year, and $7,000 for bachelor’s-granting institutions. There, NCAN found that no public college was affordable. 

In Tennessee, about 60 percent of community colleges were affordable, but no four-year college was. In Illinois, the average four-year college student ended up with a $774 surplus of aid but still faced a higher-than-average affordability gap at community colleges.