Key GOP senator privately says party is in “fight for our lives” in midterms, but sees path to holding onto Senate

In a closed-door meeting with lawmakers, the chair of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm made the case that the party can still outrun a difficult political environment and hold on to the Senate in the November midterms, multiple people in the room confirmed to CBS News.

“We’re in the fight for our lives with a record number of toss-up races,” Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), told his colleagues during Wednesday’s meeting, CBS News has learned.

With just under six weeks until the midterms, Scott said the group will focus its future spending on a handful of tight races where it is either defending GOP-held seats or attempting to flip Democratic seats, the people said.

Scott pointed to Maine, Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Alaska as among the seats the party is defending. As for opportunities to go on offense, he named New Hampshire and Michigan.

Semafor was first to report on Scott’s comments.

The meeting came as Republicans aim to defend their narrow majorities in the House and Senate — and prepare to face down political headwinds wrought by President Trump’s sagging approval ratings, tied in part to voter dissatisfaction with the cost of living and frustrations with the Iran war. Democrats have sought to capitalize on the political environment, mounting strong challenges against GOP Senate candidates in red states like Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Alaska.

Historically, the party that controls the White House almost always loses ground in the midterms. During his closed-door presentation, Scott argued Republicans could follow a trajectory similar to the one their opponents traced in 2022, when Democrats gained a Senate seat despite losing the House and struggling with then-President Joe Biden’s rough approval ratings.

Senators were also told during the presentation that Republicans are aiming to take advantage of a Supreme Court ruling that struck down limits on the amount of money groups like the NRSC can spend in coordination with candidates, according to a source in the room.

With a 53-47 majority, the Senate Republican conference can afford to lose as many as three seats and still hold on to the chamber, with Vice President JD Vance serving as a tiebreaker. 

One of the most vulnerable GOP-held seats is in Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term in a state that has trended leftward. But Collins — who is running against Democratic former state lawmaker Troy Jackson — has survived tough reelection battles in the past, winning by 8.6 points in 2020 despite being dramatically outspent by her Democratic opponent.

And in North Carolina, a light-red state that Mr. Trump narrowly won three times in a row, Democrats are vying to replace retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis with popular former Gov. Roy Cooper. Most polls show Cooper with an edge over Republican nominee Michael Whatley.

Scott told his Republican colleagues Wednesday that internal polls showed tightening races in North Carolina and Minnesota, where Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing off against former sports reporter Michele Tafoya. Minnesota is represented by a retiring Democrat.

A Democrat hasn’t won statewide in Texas in over 30 years, but the party’s nominee, James Talarico, is running against a polarizing Republican candidate in Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. 

Democrats are also looking to flip Senate seats in Iowa and Ohio — two former swing states that have shifted rightward — as well as red-leaning Alaska.

Senate Republicans are aiming to pick up two seats held by retiring Democrats: New Hampshire and Michigan. The GOP nominee in New Hampshire, former Sen. John E. Sununu, comes from a well-known local political dynasty. Michigan Republicans, meanwhile, hope to take advantage of lingering fissures within the Democratic Party after progressive Abdul El-Sayed won the nomination.

Republicans also hope to pick up Georgia’s Senate seat, which is held by Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Most polls show Ossoff leading the GOP nominee, Rep. Mike Collins, and Republican sources have previously told CBS News the party is considering whether to scale back its spending on the Georgia Senate race.