Mark Carney and E.U. plot ‘middle power’ alliance to counter Trump threats

Trump, for his part, has proved less welcoming of Canada’s European ambitions, calling the prospect of E.U. associate membership “laughable.” He told reporters Wednesday that “if it’s a good intention, that’s fine. If it’s a bad intention, we’ll put very heavy tariffs on Europe.”

While the specific label of “associate membership” appears to be an escalation, Canada and Europe have been pursuing closer ties for some time, partly to weather the storm Trump has unleashed on global trade.

The E.U. is Canada’s second-largest trading partner after the U.S., with a 2017 free trade agreement eliminating most tariffs between them, though some trading barriers remain.

They signed a defense partnership in June 2025, and Canada joined the E.U.’s military procurement program this February, giving its companies greater access to European contracts. Negotiations on a digital trade agreement followed in March.

“Middle powers must act together because if you are not at the table, you are on the menu,” Carney told the World Economic Forum in January.

Enthusiasm for closer ties has so far been accompanied by caution — on both sides.

“We’re not there,” Canada’s incoming ambassador to Brussels, Jonathan Wilkinson, told reporters in Strasbourg when asked about associate membership. “What we’re focused on is actually driving results.”

German government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius, meanwhile, said that while the idea was good, “we should reconsider the terminology — the label — associated with it.”

It is not clear how associate membership might work, nor what rights and responsibilities Canada might gain. The plan would need buy-in from all 27 members, an often fractious alliance with their own ideologies and geopolitical and domestic practical considerations.

Opening the door to a perceived lighter form of E.U. membership, just weeks after Icelanders voted against seeking to join the bloc, could risk dulling hopes of further E.U. expansion and revive fears of further disunity.

There are practical realities, too. Despite recent acrimony, tariff threats and trade boycotts, roughly 70% of Canadian exports go to the U.S., the two countries bound together by a 5,525-mile border, as well as centuries of cultural and historical ties.

The U.S.-Canada trading relationship, in which individual car parts often cross the border multiple times during the manufacturing process, cannot easily be replaced by trade that requires crossing thousands of miles of the Atlantic Ocean.

Nonetheless, Carney’s stated calculation is that, by diversifying their partners in trade, military and other areas, middle powers can reduce their reliance on big beasts such as the U.S. and improve their resilience in an increasingly belligerent world.

He will hope to strengthen this cast next month, when Canada and the E.U. are due to hold a summit in Montreal on Oct. 29 and 30. For him, the goal is to reduce dependence even while maintaining relationships with larger powers.

“The objective is not self-sufficiency,” he said Thursday. “It is collective resilience.”