CBS News Battleground Tracker poll finds Trump motivating both sides, Democrats have edge in seats in fight for House

Here’s something Republicans and Democrats seem to agree on: They both see the midterms as being about President Trump, albeit for different reasons. 

Mr. Trump is so much on voters’ minds that if this view holds at these levels through Election Day, it would surpass his own 2018 mark for a president being a factor in midterm elections.

This is also an election set against a wide backdrop of uncertainty on many fronts: The economy, inflation, conflict overseas, and even AI’s impact. 

So, prices and inflation  are driving voter sentiment in 2026 against the party in power, just as they did two years ago. 

This is not because voters necessarily think they’ll be better off — most don’t think either party can help their finances. It’s more just out of opposition.

Related to this, most voters would prefer a candidate who opposes new tariffs and opposes the Iran conflict, which is seen as connected to higher prices.

CBS News’ House model helps translate general preference for Congress, where Democrats have a lead, into seats — which is, of course, how the House is elected and decided.

It currently puts the Democrats at 228 seats, a majority, though not an historically large one, over the 218 of
435 seats needed. The model estimate ranges into the high 230s if more breaks their way in the coming weeks, but at the lower bounds, it drops to 215, which means Republicans do have a bid to hold on to their current, narrow House majority from here.

That’s partly because a lot of MAGA and 2024 Trump voters are staying with the GOP, at least out of opposition to the Democrats.

Most straightforwardly, Democrats are getting the votes of people who say higher prices have been difficult or worse.

More of the Democrats’ backing is based on voters trying to stop Trump’s policies, rather than on trying to help the Democrats get theirs. 

Most voters also do not believe the One Big Beautiful Bill has helped them financially.

Turnout

Whatever their motivation, more Democrats say they’re very enthusiastic about voting than Republicans are. 

On the GOP side, Mr. Trump has a turnout effect, too, with MAGA Republicans responding as he and party leaders have urged them to show up. 

Most MAGA Republicans say they’re just as interested now as they were in 2024, even though Mr. Trump is not on the ballot.

Yet there’s uncertainty about whether that will apply to all Republicans, since non-MAGA Republicans are comparably less likely to say they’ll definitely vote.

For most Republicans, Mr. Trump’s endorsement makes them more likely to back a candidate. Republicans — especially MAGA — continue to approve of him in big numbers, particularly on immigration, and they prefer a candidate who supports his approach to ICE operations, tariffs and the conflict with Iran.

Ultimately, the congressional seat range will depend on some key groups and dynamics to watch, including whether either party can make an affirmative case that they’ll make people better off. 

Neither one has a majority on that. Democrats have a relative edge.

But for Democrats, the democratic socialist endorsement does not play well beyond the Democratic base — and even there, it is only mixed.

The Democrats see growth relative to the 2024 vote among Hispanic voters, most of whom say they prefer a candidate who opposes the administration’s approach to ICE.

Impact of inflation and views of the parties

Mr. Trump won in 2024 partially because people thought he could help the economy and prices. 

The bulk of his 2024 voters now are staying with the GOP, even if they see prices as a difficulty. 

That’s largely because they still hold unfavorable views of Democrats.

They see a Democratic-controlled Congress as a threat to their culture and way of life.

Gas prices spur some differences within the Republican Party. Most MAGA Republicans say Americans should be willing to pay more during the Iran conflict. Other Republicans don’t. 

Democrats and Republicans each tend to think AI will decrease rather than increase the number of jobs, with Democrats even more apt to believe so.

On balance, voters would prefer a candidate opposed to new data centers in their area to one who would support building them.

David Van Riper contributed to this report.

This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,460 U.S. adults interviewed between September 8-11, 2026. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.3 points.  

The estimated numbers of Republican and Democratic seats come from a statistical model developed by CBS News and YouGov which includes data from this poll, past vote and other district-level characteristics, demographics and historical patterns. These estimates are subject to statistical error. We simulate many elections, with the error calibrated to include historical polling accuracy, to obtain a range of seat estimates. We report 95% confidence intervals from the simulations. These estimates describe which party is ahead today and may change as additional data are collected closer to the election.