Top Ph.D. Programs Shrink Amid Federal Funding Uncertainty

Graduate programs are shrinking at some of the nation’s top research universities.

Citing data from the Association of American Universities Data Exchange, The New York Times reported Monday that the number of Ph.D. students admitted to 55 research universities (all among AAU’s 69 United States–based members) declined 15 percent over the past year.  

Enrollment of new Ph.D. students at the 42 universities that responded to AAUDE’s survey has also declined over the past year, falling 11 percent between fall 2024 and fall 2025. But the losses are much higher at some universities. According to the Times, the California Institute of Technology expects to have 40 percent fewer new graduate students this fall, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is expecting about 20 percent fewer new graduate students. 

These declines were precipitated in part by the uncertain federal research funding environment.

Since kicking off in January 2025, President Donald Trump’s administration has frozen or terminated billions in federal research grants and proposed sweeping cuts to federal science agencies, including the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation, both top funders of university research. Over the past year and a half, scientists have raised alarm that all this uncertainty will dry up the nation’s pipeline of future scientists—AAU member institutions confer about half of the nation’s research doctorates—and weaken its long-standing reputation as a global leader of scientific innovation. 

But that hasn’t stopped domestic students from applying to Ph.D. programs, which saw a 3 percent uptick in applications from this population this year compared to last. However, the Trump administration’s crackdown on student visas and political speech by international students may have contributed to international students submitting 21 percent fewer applications this year.