Iowa Senate race set between Democrat Josh Turek, Republican Ashley Hinson after projected primary wins

Washington — GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek will face off in November after winning their primaries for U.S. Senate on Tuesday night, CBS News projects.

Hinson and Turek are vying to replace GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, who opted not to seek reelection. Republicans quickly lined up behind Hinson, who’s represented Iowa in the House since 2021 and is endorsed by President Trump, making her the de facto GOP nominee heading into the primary. Hinson, 42, was projected to defeat former state Sen. Jim Carlin on Tuesday. 

On the Democratic side, Turek, a 47-year-old state representative and former wheelchair basketball Paralympian, is projected to defeat state Sen. Zach Wahls. 

Turek has run on his record of working across the aisle and has touted representing the most conservative district in Iowa to send a Democrat to the state legislature. Ahead of the primary, he racked up a number of endorsements from moderates, like Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, along with some progressive lawmakers like Rep. Ro Khanna of California. And he continuously framed the contest as boiling down to electability in the red-leaning state. 

The Hawkeye State hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, and President Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024, making the race an uphill battle for the party on paper. But Democrats have been increasingly bullish about their chances in recent months amid frustration with the cost of living.

The outcome of Tuesday’s Democratic primary represents the latest example of the divide among Democrats over the party’s direction. 

Wahls, a state senator and the more progressive candidate, had the endorsement of progressives like Sen. Elizabeth Warren and a slew of labor unions. He gained recognition when at 19 he advocated for same-sex marriage, testifying about growing up with two moms before the state legislature, and would go on to become the youngest Iowa Senate Democratic leader.

While Turek focused his message on the economy and pitched himself as the most likely candidate to defeat Hinson in November, Wahls leaned into an anti-establishment message that included criticism of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Wahls repeatedly criticized Turek, who received nearly $10 million in spending from VoteVets, for being supported by national Democratic groups.

Looking to the general election, whether a Democrat can flip the Senate seat in a state that’s been a GOP stronghold for more than a decade remains to be seen. But the party is hopeful that Hinson, who’s vowed to be the president’s top ally in the Senate, may struggle at the ballot box amid some unpopular Trump administration policies, like tariffs. Meanwhile, Democrats say the Senate race could be buoyed by Auditor Rob Sand’s strong gubernatorial bid.

The Senate Leadership Fund, the leading Senate GOP super PAC, has announced a $29 million advertising reservation in the race, while the Democratic Senate Majority PAC announced a $13.4 million initial investment in television ad reservations. The Cook Political Report rates the race as likely Republican, while acknowledging that its rating could shift to become more competitive with Turek as the nominee.