Phone data reveals 42% drop in Canadian visits to U.S. last year

Toronto — The neighbors just aren’t visiting the way they used to.

A study by the University of Toronto suggests a roughly 42% reduction in visits to U.S. cities by residents of Canada last year. The drop — much steeper than official border crossing statistics suggest — is largely attributed to mounting political and trade tension between the two countries.

By tracking cellphone activity, University of Toronto researchers found “a year-over-year median decline of approximately 42% in Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas.”

According to official statistics, the number of Canadians who entered the country after returning from the U.S. in 2025 was down 25%, while the number of U.S. residents visiting Canada dropped 75%.

According to the study, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, saw the biggest drop, with some 65% fewer Canadian residents coming home from the East Coast vacation hot spot. Yuma, Arizona, saw a 62% decrease. San Francisco and the Florida cities of Miami, Palm Bay and Panama City were among the other top 10 U.S. metro areas where the data indicates a more than 50% drop in visiting Canadians last year.

The study’s authors say, aside from the evident drop in vacation visits by Canadians, the data also reveals a sharp drop in visits to major economic hubs.

“High-tech and financial centers like San Francisco and Houston appear to be experiencing reductions not only in tourists but also in business-related travel, reflecting changing travel preferences due to broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border,” the study says.

Since the start of President Trump’s second term in office, some Canadians have boycotted U.S. goods and travel in response to sweeping tariffs, stricter immigration policies, and controversial remarks by the American leader about making Canada the 51st U.S. state.

Early this year, tourism leaders in Florida were reaching out to their Canadian counterparts to try and boost travel amid the backlash to Mr. Trump’s policies and remarks.

“We’re doing what we can, just as we are with any country outside the United States, to make sure that visitation remains strong,” Visit Florida President and CEO Bryan Griffin said in February, ahead of meetings with Canadian officials.

In a deliberate bid to lure back Canadian visitors, some casinos and hotels in Las Vegas announced promotions earlier this year offering a currency exchange rate of “At Par” between U.S. and Canadian dollars through the end of August. Under the offer, $1 Canadian is equal to $1 U.S., despite the lower value of the Canadian currency.