Jokic’s poor shooting is hurting the Nuggets in the Timberwolves series

One of the best things about series betting is the hedging opportunities. You can get out of bets you put in before a series if you don’t like the way it looks. 

Sure, it could cost you, but think about it. The Denver Nuggets were favored to win the series over the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

If you took Minnesota, you could’ve hedged and taken Denver a few days ago. Of all the remaining series in the NBA, this looks the most likely for a team that was down 3-1 to win the series.

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The Nuggets are not looking like a team that dominated in the regular season or even one that has an elite player in Nikola Jokić. This was another spectacular year for Jokic, and he should win the MVP, but that will likely go to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

Jokic led the league in rebounds and assists, something never done before this season. He also finished eighth in points, once again averaging a triple-double. However, that hasn’t been enough to give the Nuggets an advantage in this series.

Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert contests a jumper by Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokić during Game 2 of their first-round series in the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Ball Arena in Colorado. (Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images)

Jokić has actually looked rather average this series. He is averaging 25 points per game, which is under his regular season total; he has increased his rebounding totals, and thanks to a 16-assist game last game, he is about in line with his season average. What is concerning is that his efficiency has been terrible. 

He is shooting just 42.2% from the floor and 19.4% from deep in the postseason. Compare that to his regular season, when he averaged 56.9% and 38.0%, respectively. It shouldn’t all be blamed on Jokić. The Nuggets’ defense has been terrible, and Aaron Gordon hasn’t been available in every game, but a lot should fall on his shoulders since he gets so much credit for their success.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves looked like they were going to dominate the series. After four games, the team was sitting comfortably with a 3-1 lead. The team was playing balanced basketball and great defense with a strong confidence. 

Then, unfortunately, the team had the injury bug hit them. Donte DiVincenzo went down with an Achilles tear, and Anthony Edwards hyperextended his knee, which will put him out for weeks. Edwards is obviously a significantly bigger loss, but both injuries hurt the team.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić looks to pass the ball as Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert defends in the second half in Denver April 1, 2025. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

If the Timberwolves can’t close this out, we probably won’t get to see Rudy Gobert get the credit he deserves. He isn’t having a very great scoring postseason, but that’s not really what he is out there for. 

He is there to make life miserable for Jokić, and that’s exactly what he has been doing. We will see where the rest of the team goes from here, but he has been the most reliable of all Timberwolves players.

Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves is fouled by Justin Holiday of the Denver Nuggets during the second quarter of Game 4 in the second round of the Western Conference Playoffs at Target Center in Minneapolis May 12, 2024. (David Berding/Getty Images)

One of the things most sports bettors know is that NBA role players perform better at home. Unfortunately for the Timberwolves, that’s pretty much all that is left. 

Julius Randle has led a team before when he was with the Knicks, but I don’t think he can do it against the Nuggets. There is still a lot of talent, and I expect better effort from the Timberwolves in this game, but I can’t support them. I don’t think the Nuggets are going to necessarily cover, but I do lean more that way. 

I think this game goes under the 224.5 because I think the only hope the Timberwolves have to win the game, and the series, relies on their defense and slowing down their offense to limit the Nuggets’ possessions. Give me the under.

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