Oil jumps above $116 as Trump’s Hormuz deadline approaches

Oil prices jumped and stocks tumbled Tuesday morning, as the United States launched new strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island and President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. ET deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approached without a clear resolution.

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The price of U.S. crude oil jumped more than 4% to $116 per barrel. International Brent crude oil rose to nearly $111 per barrel.

Stocks, meanwhile, dropped at the opening bell. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.8%. The Dow fell 275 points or 0.5% and the Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller companies, fell 0.4%.

The declines came after relatively muted overnight trading. On Tuesday morning, a U.S. official confirmed the new strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, from which Iran exports about 90% of its crude oil.

The U.S. previously struck the island March 13. At the time, Trump wrote on social media that “every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island” had been “totally obliterated.”

Tuesday’s strikes were focused on military facilities and did not impact energy infrastructure on the island, an official told NBC News.

“Oil prices remain the key driver as investors grapple with a broadening supply shock, as well as occasional hopes for de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and an easing of supply chain disruptions,” BlackRock analysts said Monday.

As of Tuesday morning, the average price per gallon of retail gasoline was $4.14. The average price per gallon of diesel fuel was $5.64, nearing its 2022 all-time high of $5.82.

At the same time, Trump continued to ramp up his threats against Iran.

Early Tuesday, he wrote on Truth Social that “A whole civilization will die tonight” if a deal with Iran is not reached and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by his deadline.

However, market participants will likely be reading Trump’s latest post carefully. It ends with Trump hinting that perhaps “smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail” in U.S. talks with Iran’s current leaders.

Since the war with Iran started Feb. 28, Trump has repeatedly announced a pause in strikes or extended talks just before deadlines that he has set.

“Barring any movement on the diplomatic front, it’s going to be hard for investors to take on much risk ahead of the President’s 8 PM deadline,” analysts at Bespoke Investment Group wrote in a note. “At no time would a Taco Tuesday be more welcome than today, but the President has shown no signs of backing down,” they added, referring to a frequently used Wall Street acronym that stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

The price of oil has been whipsawed by constant headlines and social media posts from the president since the war began.

“The strategic picture has hardened into two divergent paths,” analysts at Société Générale wrote. “Either we get a fragile détente —no ground war, controlled escalation, gradual supply recovery– or a protracted conflict with boots on the ground and structurally higher risk premia as countries respond with extreme stockpiling.”

“U.S. signalling now leans toward the latter,” they added.