How the Iran war could shatter global food security

An extra 45 million people are projected to be pushed into acute hunger because of rises in food, oil and shipping costs, putting the global tally above its current record level of 319 million, WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau told reporters in Geneva last week.

“This would ‌take ⁠global hunger levels to an all-time record and it’s a terrible, terrible prospect,” he said. “Already, before this war, we were in a perfect storm where hunger has never been as severe ⁠as now, in terms of numbers and how deep that hunger is,” he added.

The timing is especially dangerous.

Fertilizer shortages are hitting just as planting seasons begin across much of Africa and Asia.

“In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next season,” Skau said. “In the best case, higher input costs will be included in food prices next year.”

East African nations, which import massive amounts of fertilizer from the Gulf, were especially vulnerable, the Global Sovereign Advisory said.

Approximately 4 million Malawians, 22% of the population, are already experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Aid-reliant, conflict ridden nations like Somalia also stand to suffer. UNICEF says it has $15.7 million worth of lifesaving supplies, including food, vaccines and mosquito nets, being prepared for delivery on some routes.

Transport costs could rise by 30% to 60% and even double on some routes, the U.N. agency said last week.

“It’s another problem that we have to try to deal with, and it means that more and more children will suffer,” UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said last week.

President Donald Trump is talking up negotiations to end the war that he started alongside Israel. That’s even as thousands more American troops head to the Middle East and Iran accused the U.S. of a looming ground operation.

But if the war drags on beyond the next few weeks, ripple effects from what Torero called “one of the most rapid and severe disruptions” in recent times are likely to be felt, both on the ground and under it.