What could happen with mortgage interest rates this spring? Experts weigh in

The housing market has been a waiting game in recent years. Americans watched rates peak at 7.76% in late 2023, then creep slowly downward to where they are today. Through it all, sidelined buyers have been hoping the right moment was just around the corner. Now, spring is here, and the wait may finally be worth something meaningful. As of mid-March, mortgage rates on a 30-year fixed loan are slightly under 6%. With many mortgage lenders offering loans in the 5% range, it appears we’re breaking through an affordable barrier. 

Could mortgage rates continue to fall this spring, however? Or will inflation, rising 10-year Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions push them back up? We checked in with mortgage experts to get a better understanding of what could happen with mortgage rates this spring. Below, we’ll outline their expectations for the season.

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What could happen with mortgage interest rates this spring?

Don’t expect a dramatic mortgage rate drop anytime soon, or a big spike either. The experts we spoke with generally expect mortgage rates to stay in a relatively narrow window this spring.

“I think that mortgage rates will remain range-bound in the coming months,” says Christopher Hodge, head economist for the U.S. at Natixis CIB Americas and former principal economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “Though the Fed is likely to signal additional cuts are coming, this easing is likely to be offset by persistently high inflation and the fear that geopolitical events will elevate near-term inflation expectations.”

Craig Garcia, president at Capital Partners Mortgage, also sees mortgage rates holding steady. “You have a balancing act between inflation seemingly contained, and the jobs market steady. For rates to break higher or lower, you need a change in perception that inflation is back out of containment for higher rates, or that the jobs market is really under stress for rates to get much better,” he says.

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While many experts still expect rates to hold, both Garcia and Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage, say the recent overseas conflicts could push rates higher.

Indeed, Mortgage News Daily reported a 30-year fixed daily average of 6.14% on March 5, up from 5.99% on February 27.

“If you had asked me a week ago, I would have told you that rates would head lower this spring,” Cohn says. “Now that the war with Iran has begun and oil prices have skyrocketed, mortgage rates have followed suit and have risen again. Where rates will go this spring will depend on the duration of the war and the impact of higher oil prices on the rate of inflation. As it stands now, it looks like this spring will bring higher rates until the war is over and oil prices have recovered,” Cohn says.

The bond market is already reacting to the conflict. The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.13% on March 5, up from 3.97% on Feb. 27, the last trading day before the conflict began.

“If this appears to be prolonged and escalatory, leading to higher oil prices for longer, this may not help,” Garcia says.

Mortgage rate projections for spring 2026

If you’re watching rates while considering whether to purchase a home now or wait, understand that rates may remain in the same range for a while. The experts generally see rates holding close to 6%, with some room to move in either direction depending on how the Iran conflict develops and how the economy progresses.

“5.625% to 6.625%—and I hope I am right,” Garcia says. “This would mean mostly stability with some overreaction, good and bad, to economic reports as they come out.”

Cohn, who watched rates dip into the 5s just weeks ago, is monitoring the climate closely. “I am hoping that we stay in the 6% to 6.25% range for fixed rates,” she says.

The bottom line

If you’ve been waiting for mortgage rates to fall further before making a move, understand this may be as good as it gets for a while. Timing the bottom in rates is extremely difficult, since rates change daily in reaction to a wide range of economic and geopolitical factors. If you find the perfect home for your family and you can comfortably afford the mortgage, it may not be worth waiting for a minimal rate drop. “You can always refinance a mortgage,” Cohn says. “The right house, once sold to someone else, is gone.”