Consumers and businesses paid nearly 90% of Trump tariffs in 2025, new analysis found

Almost all of President Trump’s tariffs last year were passed on to U.S. consumers and businesses in the form of higher costs, according to a new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

As the average U.S. tariff on imports jumped to 13% in 2025, up from less than 3%, “nearly 90% of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers,” the researchers wrote.

Who bears the burden of tariffs?

The Trump administration maintains that foreign companies and other exporters pay the lion’s share of tariffs. 

In a Jan. 30 Wall Street Journal op-ed defending his tariff agenda, for example, Mr. Trump said that “data shows that the burden, or ‘incidence,’ of the tariffs has fallen overwhelmingly on foreign producers and middlemen, including large corporations that are not from the U.S.”

“In many cases, nations that are heavily dependent on exports have had no choice but to ‘eat’ the tariffs to avoid even worse losses from their excess capacity,” he added.

The New York Fed’s findings, which align with those of most mainstream economists, challenge that view. For the eight-month period from January through August, U.S. importers bore 94% of tariff costs. By November, exporters were shouldering slightly more of the burden, but U.S. importers remained on the hook for 86% of tariffs, according to the analysis. 

“In sum, U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025,” the report concluded. 

Defending tariffs

The White House on Thursday defended Mr. Trump’s tariffs, touting the economic gains.

“America’s average tariff rate has increased nearly sevenfold in the past year, yet inflation has cooled and corporate profits have increased,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement to CBS News. “The reality is that President Trump’s economic agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and energy abundance [is] reducing costs and accelerating economic growth.”

Recent data point to solid economic growth. The nation’s gross domestic product expanded at a robust 4.3% annual pace in the third quarter, the strongest growth in two years. 

The job market also remains healthy, with employers adding a stronger-than-expected 130,000 jobs in January, according to employment figures released earlier this week. 

Tariffs could be struck down

Economists predicted last year that elevated tariffs on imports were likely to drive up inflation. For the most part, those price hikes have failed to materialize.

In December, the Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 2.7%, unchanged from November. The Department of Labor is scheduled to release the January CPI data on Friday. 

The Treasury Department collected $287 billion in tariffs in 2025, up 192% from the previous year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. 

Yet President Trump’s scope to wield tariffs in future is uncertain, with the Supreme Court expected to rule soon on his authority to impose levies under a federal emergency powers law.

If those tariffs are struck down, the U.S. government could owe businesses as much as $168 billion in refunds, according to the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.