Meteorologists face pushback despite very accurate storm forecasts

Nearly five days before Hurricane Milton hit Florida, National Hurricane Center forecasters predicted its track within just 12 miles of where the storm later made landfall. 

Hurricane Helene forecasts were similarly precise: The National Weather Service warned long before that storm reached shore that “record flooding” in North Carolina, some 400 miles from the coast, would be “one of the most significant weather events” in the state’s history.

“The forecasts were quite accurate, and nobody can say they were surprised by the landfall location and intensity of these storms,” said John Morales, a meteorologist and hurricane specialist for NBC 6 South Florida.

And yet, at a time when hurricane forecasts are at their most accurate, some meteorologists say they’ve never faced so much skepticism, hatred and conspiracy-minded pushback. 

They’ve been falsely accused, mostly on social media, of steering the hurricanes to Florida or Appalachia. Some have reported threats of violence online, while others say they’ve experienced personal attacks. 

“In the past two months, there’s been such an uptick in conspiracy theories, especially on social media, it’s undermining my ability to do my job effectively,” said Matthew Cappucci, a meteorologist with MyRadar Weather and The Washington Post. “People will see an errant signal on a radar and think we’re zapping hurricanes. There are people who think we’re able to steer hurricanes into red states.”

Cappucci said social media commenters have berated him for his Harvard education and said he should be fired.  At a bar in Louisiana recently, Cappucci added, he was interrupted by a man who noticed his MyRadar shirt and insisted that Cappucci worked for Bill Gates. 

“He spent the next 14 minutes harassing me about weather modification,” Cappucci said. 

Bradley Panovich, chief meteorologist at WCNC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said messages have become “more personal, more vile, more persistent.”

“It’s also taking time and effort away from the job of forecasting the weather,” he added.

The wave of opposition and attacks has come as meteorologists are also dealing with the emotional toll of more severe and damaging hurricanes as climate change intensifies.

“Losing people in a weather disaster is like a doctor losing a patient on the operating table,” said Kim Klockow McClain, a senior social scientist supporting the National Weather Service. “Forecasters feel like they can save everyone. They take it personally.”

Hurricane forecasts have become more accurate

Hurricane forecasts have improved dramatically over the past 50 years. 

Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with the nonprofit research group Climate Central, said advances in computing power and a better understanding of storm physics now allows the National Hurricane Center to issue forecast cones — probable paths — before a tropical storm has even developed. 

“Our cones have gotten skinnier,” Winkley said, meaning forecasters are more certain of a hurricane’s path.

The National Hurricane Center publishes data each year about how its forecasts have aligned with reality, and the trend shows a decline in track errors since the 1970s. Back then, a storm forecast issued 36 hours ahead was likely off by roughly 230 miles, according to NOAA. In the 2020s so far, that error is roughly 57 miles. 

Cappucci called the center’s forecast of Hurricane Milton “almost prescient” and one of the best in its history.