2026 Kentucky Derby: Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s Expert Picks, Best Bets

“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

Every year, sports fans shift their attention to Louisville on the first Saturday in May for the Kentucky Derby. 

There’s just something incredibly special about the event, dubbed “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.” 

This is the 152nd “Run for the Roses,” and regardless of whether you indulge in a few Mint Juleps, there is fun to be had for all — particularly when it comes to laying a few wagers. 

So, let’s jump into the action.

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1. Renegade: 4/1 (bet $10 to win $50 total)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

I’m in a strange spot with the Derby favorite. I have a nice future ticket on him and now that the race is here, I don’t plan on using him in the winning spot on any other tickets. So if he wins, great. If my handicapping here is correct, and he’s a non-factor, that’s great too. He’s won both of his races as a 3-year-old. However, the reports of sore feet do not inspire a lot of confidence. Neither does the rail draw, for which I have some stats further down in the column. While it’s true being a closer does mitigate some of the concerns with the rail, the fact is this horse might not be fast enough. His winning figures in the Arkansas Derby and Sam F Davis are below what Chief Wallabee, Further Ado and Commandment are running. Remember too, it’s not like trainer Todd Pletcher has had a ton of success here either — more on that further in this column, too. While it is also true Irad Ortiz Jr. probably had his choice of mounts in this race and chose Renegade, it just feels like there are way too many “ifs” involved here. If he breaks, if his feet are OK, if he can get a trip, etc. I actually think he will not go favored Saturday and, despite being an overlay in the wagering, I’m still standing against.

2. Albus: 30/1 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Riley Mott
Jockey: Manny Franco

The longer shot of the two Riley Mott runners in here and deservedly so. Won a very weak Wood Memorial at 12-1 from way off the pace and being sired by Yaupon, I would be absolutely stunned if this one was anywhere near a superfecta finish, as 1 1/4 miles does not appear to be in his bloodlines.

3. Intrepido: 50/1 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Jockey: Hector Berrios

Just worked an insanely fast four furlongs in 45 seconds and trainer Jeff Mullins was none too happy about it. Still, I’ll include this one underneath on my trifectas and superfectas, as he’s shown some staying power to carry on and stay off the pace. That will serve him well here, so long as that last workout didn’t gas him.

4. Litmus Test: 50/1 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia

Was favored against Silent Tactic in the Rebel and only 9/2 against Renegade in the Arkansas Derby, and was nowhere to be found in either. Baffert, blinkers, Martin Garcia — we all know what the plan is here. There will be some that don’t want to toss a Baffert speed horse and I get it. But this $875k purchase does not pass the litmus test. I’ll show myself out. He will not be on my tickets.

5. Right to Party: 30/1 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Chris Elliott

I’ve heard this one does not look very good on the track, which checks with him not looking good on paper either. He’s in the race because he got up for second in that poor Wood Memorial I mentioned above. Ken McPeek has won some Triple Crown races with long shots, but this won’t be another one of them.

6. Commandment: 6/1 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez

Comes into the race off consecutive wins in the two best preps this year. Both were in get-up late fashion over horses he will face again here. That raises a question whether he will have as fortunate a trip here to get some good luck and win given his running style. One could also argue he’s the most consistent runner here and the most likely to hit the board. Then there are some whispers he’s been a little sluggish lately. Read the workout reports, watch the works and form your own guess based on all the info. He’ll be on my ticket though, as he hasn’t run a bad one.

7. Danon Bourbon: 20/1 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe
Jockey: Atsuya Nishamura

While none of the Japanese runners here have ever really wowed us with a pre-Derby work, his Tuesday work was really slow and ugly looking. He’s won all three races in Japan by margin but that won’t be the case here. I’ll be leaving off.

8. So Happy: 15/1 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Trainer: Mark Glatt
Jockey: Mike Smith

The feel good story of the race. If you’re rooting for a horse based on a human interest story, then this is your horse. Named by trainer Mark Glatt’s late wife, So Happy broke maiden at 38-1 and won the Santa Anita Derby at 7-1, beating Potente to give Glatt his first Derby starter. I’d be surprised if So Happy found the winners’ circle here, though. Runhappy progeny probably do not want to go 1 1/4 miles, but if he happens to win, there won’t be many dry eyes at the track.

9. The Puma: 10/1 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano

I’m struggling here. The rumored purchase of an interest in the horse by Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift means the price here is going to be seriously slashed. And that isn’t the type of play I’m looking to make on Derby Day in a 20-horse field. However, the horse does figure. Lost a bob to Commandment in the Florida Derby, beat Further Ado in Tampa and was favored in his debut against Chief Wallabee. Connections won the Derby with Mage. Running style profiles of that as a winning-type. Being by Essential Quality, The Puma should be able to handle the extra distance. Then you look at the flip side among a couple of those arguments for. The win over Further Ado at Tampa came with Further Ado making his first start off a three-month layoff, and he likely needed the race. While favored over Chief Wallabee in that maiden race where both were making their debut. And Chief Wallabee still won the race quite handily — and Bill Mott rarely has a horse cranked to win first out. He was beaten handily by Renegade in the Sam Davis. I’ll probably let the board decide how involved I get here. Can he win? Absolutely. Will there be fair odds? Absolutely not. But if you’re keying on top in exotics and get a couple of prices underneath, then you’re in business. I’ll likely be defensively using, but the Swiftie bandwagon definitely has the handicapper in me on the fence.

10. Wonder Dean: 30/1 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

UAE Derby winner is overmatched here and will not be on my tickets. Until one beats me, I will be standing against the Japan imports in the Derby.

11. Incredibolt: 20/1 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Trainer: Riley Mott
Jockey: Jaime Torres 

Has won both of his career races at Churchill Downs, including the Grade 3 Street Sense. Was 4-1 in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream but did nothing that day. Maybe he didn’t like the track, maybe he needed the race. Whatever the reason, he bounced back with a big effort in the Virginia Derby, drawing off in the stretch. Was it rail aided? Possibly. His pedigree doesn’t scream distance, but he finishes well and has the look of a long-shot you’ll want on your tickets.

12. Chief Wallabee: 8/1 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

I think he’s the best horse in the race. Won at first asking for Bill Mott — and Bill Mott rarely wins with a horse making its debut. He beat The Puma in that race, by the way. Just missed in the Fountain of Youth, losing by a neck to Commandment, then ran an early identical race in the Florida Derby, losing basically a blanket finish. I was a little concerned about adding blinkers, but I’ll trust Bill Mott’s judgment, as this will likely keep him focused and not dissuaded from running in tight quarters. He is absolutely “one of the ones” you want prominently on your ticket, as Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado are looking to win their third Triple Crown race in the last four.

14. Potente: 20/1 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez

First thing that caught my eye was $2.4 million for this one. Yeesh — steep. But it’s not my money, thankfully! Beaten favorite in the Santa Anita Derby is making a big step up from what he’s been facing in California and being by Into Mischief, he looks like he’s stuck in between being a seven-furlong specialist and a 1 1/16 horse. Another one I can’t quite get behind.

15. Emerging Market: 15/1 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat

He’s looking to give Chad Brown his first Derby win in just his third lifetime start. He broke maiden on Feb. 7, won the Louisiana Derby and has been pointing to this for six weeks. History is against him, but I think he’s sitting on a massive effort here. Not only does he have a jockey that always manages to find a good trip and placing in the Derby/Triple Crown race, his progression pattern leads me to believe this will be his best race yet. He ran huge in his debut, beating a highly thought of horse named Powershift and then, despite seeing his Beyer speed figure fall seven points in his first race against winners in the Louisiana Derby, he managed to get the win. I’d expect he could land in the 100 Beyer range here if he gets a trip and that puts him right in it. He also profiles to have the running style of the winner — just off the pace, but not a complete closer.

16. Pavlovian: 30/1 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado

Front-running Cal-bred has zero shot. I know some will make the case that he nearly stole the Louisiana Derby at 22-1, but he’s gotta carry his speed another 1/16 of a mile against a field twice that side and much deeper.

17. Six Speed: 50/1 (bet $10 to win $510 total) 
Trainer: Bhupat Seamer
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Another front-runner who draws into the race off a second-place finish in the UAE Derby. I’ll be rooting for co-owners Jake Ballis and Reagan Swinbank to enjoy the walkover and the day, but I can’t see this one being around when the real running begins.

18. Further Ado: 6/1 (bet $10 to win $70 total) 
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: John Velazquez

The question one needs to ask themselves when it comes to Further Ado is whether you think Further Ado is simply a Keeneland freak. His two best races by far have come at Keeneland, but he also won the G2 Jockey Club over the Churchill surface. Was beaten by The Puma in Tampa, but there’s every reason to believe he needed that race. Is he a bounce candidate off the big figure at KEE? Possibly, but a month off should be enough time to be ready here. He’s versatile, and I believe I’ve landed on him as the most likely winner from the Cox barn.

19. Golden Tempo: 30/1 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

It’s easy to root for trainer Cherie DeVaux and racing royalty Phipps Stable, who owns Golden Temp. Homebred should be able to run all day with Curlin/Bernardini bloodlines, but the lack of speed worries me. Jockey Jose Ortiz is going to need everything to go right trip-wise to win from way off the pace. Among the long shots in the race, this one appears to be the “livest of the live,” and while I think an underneath finish is the most likely ceiling here, a win isn’t out of the question. Check out the Louisiana Derby, where he didn’t have the best start, the speed didn’t back up and was only beaten a length. Would be an extremely popular — and rewarding at the window – winner. Does have some concerns, though with “cracked feet” as they’ve been called.

21. Great White: 50/1 (bet $10 to win $510 total) 
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: Alex Achard

Upset winner of the Battaglia on the synthetic was nowhere to be found in the Blue Grass vs. Further Ado, and he’ll be nowhere to be found here either.

22. Ocelli: 50/1 (bet $10 to win $510 total) 
Trainer: Joseph Ramos
Jockey: Whit Beckman

Lol.

How I’m Betting The Kentucky Derby

$4 Exacta Box ($48)
11-12-15-18

$2 Exacta Key Box ($48)
12-15-18 with 3-6-9-19

$10 Win-Place ($40)       
12, 18

$1 Trifecta ($48)
12-18/6-9-12-15-18/1-6-9-11-12-15-18-19

Notes, Stats and Trends

Rail Is Not The Place To Be

Since 2020, when the continuous 20-horse gate has been used, no horse breaking from the rail has finished better than fifth. However, none was better than the fourth choice on the board. Most ran pretty much to their rank on the oddsboard.

Odds Rank/Finish

2025 — Citizen Bull 7th/15th
2024 — Dornoch 9th/10th
2023 — Hit Show 11th/5th
2022 — Mo Donegal 5th/5th
2021 — Known Agenda 4th/8th
2020 — Max Player 6th/5th

The last time a top-three choice broke from the rail was 2010, when Lookin At Lucky went favored and finished sixth. The last time a top-three choice broke from the rail and hit the board was 1974, when Agitate finished third. The last time a top-three choice broke from the rail and won was Needles in 1956.

The last horse to hit the board after breaking from the rail was Lookin at Lee – 2nd at 33-1  in 2017. That’s the only ITM finish by a horse that broke from the rail in the last 37 years. The last horse to win after breaking from the rail – Ferdinand at 18-1 in 1986.

Pletcher’s Derby Problems

Since Always Dreaming won the Derby in 2017, only one of Todd Pletcher’s 17 Derby starters hit the board — Audible, third in 2018. Seven of those 17 starters were among the top-five betting choices in the field. Pletcher has had 13 Derby starters sent off as a top-three betting choice. Two have won (Super Saver, Always Dreaming), three have finished third (Impeachment, Revolutionary Danza) and seven have finished 10th or worse. Pletcher did not have a starter in the Derby last year.

Favorites Have Run Well, But Not Won Lately

Favorites have finished in the money in 18 of the last 19 Triple Crown Races (four wins, nine seconds, five thirds). The one that didn’t — Fierceness, who finished 15th in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. If you limit it to the Kentucky Derby, favorites have finished in the money in 12 of the last 14 Kentucky Derbies (six wins, four seconds, two thirds), with Fierceness in 2024 and Improbable in 2019 the omissions.

The last eight Triple Crown races have been formful from a trifecta standpoint. Of the 24 runners that occupied the trifecta spots, 18 were among the top-three betting choices on the board. However, we’ve still seen big payouts, as five of the last nine Triple Crown races were won by a horse that was at least the 5th betting choice.

Since a run of six straight winning Derby favorites from 2013-2018, none of the official Derby winners was better than the third choice. In that span, the longest shot on the board (Rich Strike) and 18th betting choice (Country House) have won the race.

Official Kentucky Derby Winner (Since 2019)
Odds/Odds Rank

2025 — Sovereignty 8-1/3rd
2024 — Mystik Dan 19-1/7th
2023 — Mage 15-1/8th
2022 — Rich Strike 81-1/20th
2021 — Mandaloun 27-1/8th <
2020 — Authentic 8-1/3rd
2019 — Country House 65-1/18th

* < Was not paid out as winner in mutuels

In Prat We Trust

Flavien Prat has had 16 mounts in Triple Crown races. Only once has he finished worse than fourth, and that was with his second Triple Crown mount Solomini. His 16 mounts have resulted in two wins, two seconds, seven thirds and four fourth-place finishes. If you limit it to the Derby, it’s a win, one second, four thirds and a fourth from eight mounts. Anyone care to wheel Emerging Market, who is 15-1 on the moneyline, in the superfecta?

Odds and Ends

The second choice in the wagering hasn’t won since Super Saver in 2010. The fourth choice in the wagering hasn’t won since Grindstone in 1996

Irad Ortiz Jr. has never hit the board from his nine Derby mounts. His best finish is fourth aboard the 2019 favorite Improbable.

Since winning his third Derby aboard Authentic in 2020, John Velazquez’s last four mounts have finished 15th, 13th, 15th and 19th. Each of them were among the top-seven betting choices.

Mike Smith will be making his 69th career Triple Crown mount aboard So Happy. Smith last hit the board in a Triple Crown race when Justify crossed the wire first in the 2018 Belmont Stakes to win the Triple Crown.